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February 12, 2008



Nucbuddy - less people, less resources needed, less resources depleted.


The fraction of 0.5 or 0.8 or whatever can easily be addressed by the market. Try to think a bit out of the box. There is nothing holy and sacred about having children. Bearing children is a privilege and not a right. Bringing another conscious being into this world that puts a strain on its resources is a responsibility and there is no freedom without responsibility.

I think DaveMart changed his position from "Peak Lithium" to the reasonable position that there is no real shortage of Lithium, but simply a ramp-up of mining and refining condition which can easily be addressed in a matter of few years. Anybody with real business experience (like me) can tell you that.

Like any other resource, ramping up takes time. But again, the market can do wonders when the price of lithium jumps from the current $95/kg to $200. Trust the market - cause the truth is in the market. Those who think they can outdo or better the market, and their pet idealistic plans (always at someone else's expense) can outperform the market, are encouraged to put their money where their mouth is (and invariably fail) or simply stop armchair business punditry and remain quiet.

Tahill is of the doomsey anti-production faction, with an ax to grind. His statistics are selective and discredible.

Believe me, the rampup of EVs, even plug-ins which is the least radical, will be slow. It took 10 years for the Chinese to ramp up lithium powered bicycles, and still that is a small fraction of the market and almost non-existant in the West. There is nothing simpler than a lithium powered bicycle - and their product still sucks (I have one).


I am wondering if you could make a blog to summarise and reference the information we have arrived at in this thread?

Debates tend to happen over and over again, and it can be tedious covering the same ground - the nuclear debate springs to mind in that respect.

That was my intention when I blogged this concern with possible shortages of lithium - the information I found showed some grounds for concern if we had to ramp up production of batteries rapidly due to oil price and availability, although it also showed that longer term we could certainly cope with more plentiful resources available for other materials which would do adequate batteries.

It is now clear from information that has come to light in this thread that we should be OK, and a write up would be good for when the subject comes up again, as it will.

We can only work with the tools we have, and I am certainly under-equipped technically to do this - I was struggling from the first, but thought the issue important enough to open the debate.


The position I have at any point in time is purely data driven.

I came across information which indicated that there might be grounds for concern if we needed a lot of lithium quickly, to produce batteries in the event of an oil shortage.

It seems from the discussion that we are OK, and so with more information my position alters.

I am not in the business of trying to hold a prior position come what may, but of forming a best judgement at any particular time.

It still seems to me that it would be worthwhile putting some more emphasis on materials with a wider resource base such as zinc, but my main concern was to establish if we could cope in the event of oil shortage in the short term.

Jeff Rubinoff

Is this iMEV designed specifically for the Japanese market and the way Japanese drive? The range seems short for Americans, or at least Midwesterners (and presumably Westerners more so).
I really enjoy this blog, aside from the gratuitous ad hominem attacks, but one thing that strikes me is the America-centrism of much of the discussion of vehicle needs.
One thing I would very much like to see is a cheap, small electric vehicle. Something that could replace scooters, motorbikes and 3-wheel vehicles. I say this because if you stand in the photochemical soup that is Bangkok air and watch the traffic run past, a lot of is is run on 2-cycle engines, and these engines are not subject to the same emission (or licensing) standards as autos. They must contribute a great deal to the pollution in cities like Bangkok, HK, Jakarta and Rome.


Using sunlight to split hydrogen from water, HYdrogen for energy storage and use when we need or want it. Help build the inforstructrue for a much more self sufficiant energy future NOW. Lets proactivly create solutions and help.


Maybe I came on too strong there. Sorry. Just still hashing through stuff. Too much I guess. Check this new link on Nilar out:

“7-10 year life"
“more than 2,000 charge/discharge cycles”
“Maintenance-free operation”
“Fast charging” “Fully recyclable”

Guess I mostly agree with you. Thought of your position on child bearing in my early twenties and that was a long time ago. Just think it's much easier to say than it is to implement. Some people have stronger drive to have children than to survive. To bad.
Even if we make it through the current energy/transport transformation, we'll still have to worry about running out of water, food, or even just air.


Jeff Rubinoff,
iMiev sounds like it will be good for Japan, Isreal, Hawaiian Islands, or even USA commuters. Wasn't there a large wait list in California for the EV-1 back in its time? You're right that PHEVs might be more suited for many in USA.
I'm curious, why don't you like three wheelers? Some of newer ones look to be much more stable the Corbin Sparrow was and safer. Have you looked at links to Aptera I put in above?
I think it's Tata motors in India that's going after the market you mention in a big way.

http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2007/04/a_car_that_runs.html (CAT car – March 2007 news)

This fiberglass body car is composite compressed air tank plus fuel hybrid, Compressed Air Technology (CAT) car.
MiniCAT: 3 seater “Maximum speed: 110 kmh” (66 mph) “Mileage: 200 - 300 km” (120-180 miles)
CityCAT: 6 seater “Maximum speed: 110 kmh” (66 mph) “Mileage: 200 - 300 km” (120-180 miles)


You certainly did not sound to me in any way remiss - I did wonder when I was replying if I perhaps sounded abrupt, but did not re-write as we have chatted before, and I just hoped that you would take it as it was meant, courteously.

There are many interesting things happening in the battery world at the moment - great for geeks like us! :-)


The lead acid graphite Firefly battery is the one to use. With electric rear wheels added to a front wheel drive economy car. Audi has the design, but do they have Firefly? I doubt it.

The Firefly becomes available as the "Oasis" truck battery this summer. 4 or 5 ought to power a 40hp electric motored economy car 40 or 50 miles. A hypercar would do even better.

Toyota has a 962 pound plugin hybrid hypercar the same size and performance as the Prius.


No worries ;-).

FireFly is only good for about 1,800 deep cycles according to only performance plot I have. Half a dozen Li Ion manufactures claim to have achieved 3,000 deep cycles or more. (Toshiba makes same claim for SCiB battery but i don't know the chemistry.) I was going to ask if you thought the FireFly price was going to be low enough, but you're right they have two third's the deep cycle performance and the cost is likely much lower. Why aren't they directly targeting HEVs, PHEVs, and EVs yet?

Interesting about the Toyota PHEV. Somehow it got by me that this is a hypercar. Still, concept cars from Toyota count the same as concept cars from GM. Not for much. Yes, it can be done. {Lower drag, lighter composite bodies, better regenerative braking and longer life batteries using hypercar concept, lighter and moer powerful electric motors, get rid of parallel ICE and extra transmission HW and use only range extending generator, etc.}
Only production really counts now.


So they release the Li-ion battery and they also planning the mass production. Great creation from Mitsubishi Motor but its sounds like a problem to other diesel or fuel company. Also the cost of the MiEV and Mitsubshi parts will be surely increasing year by year.


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That's a good idea for Mitsubishi to produce their own battery. Makes the process much faster and probably cheaper in the long run, if done correctly.

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I don't generally like small, strange looking cars- but that is pretty cute, I would buy that!

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Interesting that this is Mitsubishi, is this their first real venture into electric vehicle market?

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You say they would win the race to produce an electric vehicle by a large company- but didn't GM do it first?

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I've had a few Mistubishi cars and loved them, I would buy this just for reliability of the brand.

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