Biopact has a post on a sure to be controversial article by a Harvard professor that claims that biofuels can match oil production. Read the post and the Financial Times article and form your own opinion.
Even though some vested interests are trying to downplay the potential of biofuels, energy analysts and scientists know that their potential is truly vast - at least in theory. The director of Harvard University’s Center for International Development (John F. Kennedy School of Government), professor Ricardo Hausmann, joins those analysts and presents a well argued view on what would be needed for a sustainable bioenergy future to emerge. Writing in the Financial Times, he goes so far as to state that 'biofuels can match oil production'. . . . more
Well, I'll give the guy credit for one thing... he sure thinks BIG. However, I don't know how realistic his idea is. A 30% market share sounds a bit more feasible... and even that will take cellulosic fuels, pyrolysis technology, algae oil, etc. Still, if this report causes the anti-biofuels liberals to froth at the mouth, then it was grant money well spent.
Posted by: averagejoe | November 08, 2007 at 07:00 PM
A relatively simple research project must be setup to test these propositions. The ultimate source of energy for biofuels is the Sun. Once you deductthe "inefficiency" of the plant, the energy used to farm the fuel and extract its energy, you are left with a net production of energy. The best case is one with 100% of solar energy converted to biofuel and with no extraction or farming costs. The worst case (like ethanol) is where the farming and extraction energy equals or exceeds the useful energy production.
Now, let's find a scientist to do this study. Economists should be taken with a grain of salt.
Posted by: engineer | November 09, 2007 at 04:11 PM
The author claims:
This begs the question of what's there now. Swamps tha haven't been drained? Forests that haven't been cleared? The implied claim is that it would be good for us and the world to convert this to biofuel crops, erasing everything that's there now. This is not something that I would accept at face value, and I'm no "liberal".The author also writes:
World petroleum consumption is about 85 million bbl/day (crude, condensate, natural gas liquids and "other liquids") or about 31 billion bbl/yr. This claim is equivalent to a productivity of 31-62 bbl/ha/yr, or the energy equivalent of about 930-1860 gallons of ethanol per acre per year. This is 2-5 times the productivity of corn. People should take Hausman's numbers with a grain of salt.Posted by: Engineer-Poet | November 09, 2007 at 10:50 PM
engineer: The difficulty with doing the sort of analysis you ask for is that every field/crop/production method is different. Presumably with time we will get more efficient, breed more suitable crops, use more efficient processes, that produce more product per crop input, and use less energy etc. Then there is the question of longterm sustainablity, are the energy crops depleting important soil minerals?
Clearly the analysis needs to be done, but blanket statements that we studied say corn to ethanol ten years ago and.. are meaningless. Now my gut feel is that Hausman probably took the most optimistic numbers for many factors, and is likely grossly overestimating the potential.
Posted by: bigTom | November 10, 2007 at 12:46 PM
You missed the biggest point the text. The author claimed that this land was not cultivated. Before you can even argue about the productivity of the biofuels which might grow there, you have to show that you won't do irreparable damage by removing what's there now.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet | November 11, 2007 at 07:58 AM
In the US we have to show 'irreparable damage' is not going to be done to the environment but this does not apply everywhere.
Debates about the potential of renewable energy are rather silly in general. Notice that E-P is not the least bit worried about 'irreparable damage' caused by paving the desert with solar collectors to power PHEV so that his 'irreparable damaged' city will have cleaner air. At some point it is necessary to just go out and do it.
I do not know what the potential of biomass renewable energy will be but there are a whole lot of places in the world 'irreparable damage' is being caused by women spending a large portion of their day gathering firewood to cook food. Will making liquid fuels for rich western countries provide a choice they did not have before?
Posted by: Kit P | November 11, 2007 at 11:32 AM
Engineer-Poet, that's not what "begging the question" means. Begging the question is a logical fallacy in which an argument is considered true without any evidence except the argument itself. If the Total chief had said, "There are 700m hectares of available land because nothing is being cultivated on it," that is "begging the question". He stated quite clearly that it was "good quality land", a category in which I think it's safe to assume an educated person would not include swamp land that needs to be drained or forests that need to be cleared. You should have written "that makes me wonder..." or "here's an interesting question...". http://begthequestion.info/
Why don't you just email the professor and ask instead of jumping to wild conclusions?
Posted by: foobat | November 11, 2007 at 12:20 PM
KitP and foobat, in terms of wilderness, value is often equated with biodiversity or uniqueness. While some desert areas and other areas of "good quality land" are species rich or unique, many others are not. The basic issue is whether the land Hausmann is talking about falls into this category or not. I don't know the answer but it is a question worth asking.
Posted by: marcus | November 11, 2007 at 01:13 PM
I know that Kit P has no compunctions against lying or even contradicting himself in the space of a single thread, but claiming that I want to pave deserts is a new low for him. I think that some of the new solar-thermal schemes have great potential, but my proposals thus far have involved roofers, not pavers.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet | November 11, 2007 at 08:51 PM
E-P is against anything that would compete with PHEV. Do I have his agenda wrong?
E-P, you think putting solar panels on roof is a good idea? To start with roofing is a very dangerous occupation. The second is that there is an amazing lack of data about electricity production on roofs. One seller claims they can electronically track performance from a central location but does not back up claims with data.
There is a logical fallacy. Buildings are not located to catch solar rays. Identifying which buildings takes more time and money than it is worth. Well unless your goal is to take a picture as part of a marketing campaign to impress E-P.
Posted by: Kit P | November 12, 2007 at 08:28 AM
KitP, I'm afraid these criticisms come across as rather pathetic. You asked about alternative energies to coal. E-P has suggested solar thermal. Can you come up with anything more substantial than these counter points? I would also say that there is a LOT of land out there that is not of high conservation value that could be utilized for this apart from roof space.
Posted by: marcus | November 12, 2007 at 12:05 PM
I welcome Kit P's scheme to eliminate the hazards of the job of roofing (which has to be done whether the roof collects energy or not) and am waiting with bated breath for details of this wonderful advance he must have.
Posted by: Engineer-Poet | November 12, 2007 at 11:00 PM
Biofuels, forget it. This Audi plugin hybrid design is the thing to face peak oil. Every front wheel and all wheel drive car model could be converted easily with electric wheel motors and batteries in the rear.
It allows auto manufactureres to go plugin hybrid with very little investment in retooling. And issue front wheel drive cars in plugin hybrid all wheel drive versions.
http://amazngdrx.blogharbor.com/blog/_archives/2007/11/12/3348547.html
Posted by: amazingdrx | November 13, 2007 at 01:20 AM
I emailed the professor and asked him to expand on what exactly "good quality land" means, and he gave a pretty good explanation (pasted here with his permission):
Posted by: JD | November 13, 2007 at 11:05 PM
Thanks JD and Dr. Hausmann.
It would be interesting to see how the calculations go after subtracting all the land of high conservation value.
Posted by: marcus | November 13, 2007 at 11:49 PM
Solar PV for plugin hybrids can also be mounted over parking lots and even over highways if necessary. no extra land need be used.
On the other hand, cellulosic ethanol would use conservation reserve cropland for monoculture, chemical agriculture to produce biomass for cellulosic ethanol. Destroying that huge carbon sink. And ethanol will never contribute more than a few percent to gas guzzling at the same or greater price as ever rising liquid fuel from oil.
A study of suitable roof space for solar PV in San Diego county proves that it is a sufficient technology to power a large portion of the grid without GHG production.
Posted by: amazingdrx | November 15, 2007 at 11:49 PM
He is absolutely right about biofuels..they are completely feasable and we have to switch to biofuels and synthetic oil ASAP!
Of course we cannot rely on third worlders in africa and south america for feedstock or fanatic anti biofuel liberals for policy... we can produce more than what we need right here in the United States and take down the terrorist oil cartel! Americans have always the creative and courageous ones, we can do it!
Posted by: Sam | January 03, 2008 at 03:14 PM
Are biofuels truly addressing the problem or creating a larger one with many unintended consequences? That's the debate I'd like to encourage at a new site I created called BioFoolish?.
http://www.biofoolish.com
I hope you'll weigh in / vote with your own thoughts on bio fuels.
Posted by: BioFool | September 25, 2008 at 03:32 PM
Well this is a basic calculation really.
Today's oil use: 180,000,000,000 GJ/year.
Optimistic average net biofuel energy yield of 180 GJ/ha.
= 180,000,000,000/180 = one billion hectares
= 10 million square kilometers.
= about the size of the United States.
= a square over three thousand kilometers on a side.
The question is not can we do this. We can cut down most of the forests on this earth if we really wanted. The question is how can we possibly do this without ecological destruction.
Going for today's oil use in terrestrial plant biofuels is madness. If extremely high yield algae are developed, the impact may be found acceptable by reasonable standards.
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Posted by: Sarah | March 19, 2009 at 10:07 AM
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Sarah
http://www.lyricsdigs.com
Posted by: Sarah | March 20, 2009 at 10:14 AM
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Sarah
http://www.lyricsdigs.com
Posted by: Sarah | March 21, 2009 at 05:54 AM