"Facing the Hard Truths about Energy"

“Accumulating risks to the supply of reliable, affordable energy” require an integrated national strategy, according to a major new report by the National Petroleum Council (NPC).

The 18-month study of global energy to 2030 involved more than 350 experts from diverse backgrounds and organizations—the majority of them from outside the oil and gas industry.

A list of five core strategies and the hard truths about the global energy future give an indication of the point of view of the report.

The report identifies five core strategies for meeting future energy challenges:

• Moderate the growing demand for energy by increasing efficiency of transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial uses.
• Expand and diversify production from clean coal, nuclear, biomass, other renewables, and unconventional oil and natural gas; moderate the decline of conventional domestic oil and gas production; and increase access for development of new resources.
• Integrate energy policy into trade, economic, environmental, security, and foreign policies; strengthen global energy trade and investment; and broaden dialogue with both producing and consuming nations to improve global energy security.
• Enhance science and engineering capabilities and create long-term opportunities for research and development in all phases of the energy supply and demand system.
• Develop the legal and regulatory framework to enable carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). In addition, as policymakers consider options to reduce CO2 emissions, provide an effective, global framework for carbon management, including establishment of a transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost for CO2 emissions.

The United States and the world face hard truths about the global energy future over the next 25 years:

• Coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable to meeting total projected energy demand growth.
• The world is not running out of energy resources, but there are accumulating risks to continuing expansion of oil and natural gas production from the conventional sources relied upon historically. These risks create significant challenges to meeting projected energy demand.
• To mitigate these risks, expansion of all economic energy sources will be required, including coal, nuclear, renewables, and unconventional oil and natural gas. Each of these sources faces significant challenges—including safety, environmental, political, or economic hurdles—and imposes infrastructure requirements for development and delivery.
• “Energy Independence” should not be confused with strengthening energy security. The concept of energy independence is not realistic in the foreseeable future, whereas U.S. energy security can be enhanced by moderating demand, expanding and diversifying domestic energy supplies, and strengthening global energy trade and investment. There can be no U.S. energy security without global energy security.
• A majority of the U.S. energy sector workforce, including skilled scientists and engineers, is eligible to retire within the next decade. The workforce must be replenished and trained.
• Policies aimed at curbing CO2 emissions will alter the energy mix, increase energy-related costs, and require reductions in demand growth.

The press release summarizing the report are on the Energy Bulletin, with links to the official summary, the full report and comments by Secretary Bodman, ASPO, and The Oil Drum.

Comments

[Calamity]

It took more than 350 experts 18 months to figure this stuff out. Hilarious.

Still, this is a good hatstand for further, more specialised studies.

[Doug]

If you read the reports carefully, it's a very anti-CO2, pro carbon fuels (oil, gas, coal) document. Further, it cites not opportunities for this industry to improve its environmental impact even though it acknowledges CO2 as at least a "concern". It's a deceptively coercive document that is critical of legislation that impacts the oil and gas industry.

[JohnBo]

What a worthless study. It must have been funded by tax money.

[Kit P]

NPC is privately funded and this 422 page draft study is a wealth of information. Some may not like the reality. For example, fossil fuel is projected to increase in the energy mix while nuclear and renewable energy may increase in absolute terms they decrease in relative terms.

Spend some time looking at US LNG import projections (figure s3b-14). If a have a quibble with the study, I think nuclear and renewable energy additions will reduce LNG and not coal.

[Calamity]

It's important to keep the scope of this study in mind. Only up to 2030; the greatest push towards non-carbon energy sources will occur after 2030.

However, perhaps the hardest truth to face is that this study was done by the national petroleum council.

So I would like to add another "core strategy": Take the industry's own research with a grain of salt.

That doesn't mean this research is useless.

[Moonzie]

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[Uggs Clearance]

Great, practical and much needed advice.

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