BP 2007 Statistical Review of World Energy

I meant to post a link to  BP's 2007 Statistical Review of World Energy last week but didn't get around to it. BP's Statistical Review is the most widely used estimate of world oil reserves. The annual report is full of much data on the energy industries and it is worth keeping a link in your favorites for future reference.

An article in The Independent, UK., as referenced by Mark C R, points out that some scientists have challenged BP as being to optimistic when it said that it "appears to show that the world still has enough 'proven' reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates."

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC), say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.

First let me say that I do not like the term peak oil in that the maximum production is more likely to be set by economics than by reserves constraints.  I prefer to say that we are in an era of decreasing reserves of increasingly expensive oil. Second let me say that I believe that the ODAC is likely to be much closer to reality than The Independent's interpretation of BP's data, but no one knows the exact date. However that is like comparing apples to oranges.  BP reports the R/P ratio (Reserves/Production ratio) which is not meant to predict the time before peak oil is reached or the time it will take to use up all of our oil reserves for the following reasons:

1. It can not be used to predict the peak because the production of oil over time is not linear, but follows a bell shaped curve, as defined by Hubbert, and there is a lot of useful oil that can be produced after peak production is reached.
2. We cannot possibly use all of our oil reserves, as some, rather large quantity, will always remain in the ground.
3. Using R/P does not account for the steady increase in demand.
4. Using the R/P assumes that all reserves are used up before we run out of oil.

Comments

[Doug]

A few quibbles:

"We cannot possibly use all of our oil reserves, as some, rather large quantity, will always remain in the ground."

That statement would be true if you'd used the word resources in place of reserves. Reserves count only what people think can actually be produced - they've already accounted for the fact that some resources will remain in the ground. In fact, today we typically recover a lot less than half of the oil in a field. Oil resources are actually much much higher than BP's reserve figures.

"Using R/P does not account for the steady increase in demand."

True. However it also doesn't count new discoveries, nor new technologies that have the effect of moving oil resources into the reserves category. For example the oil sands in Canada weren't counted in world reserve totals until it was successfully argued that they met the criteria for being counted as reserves (namely, that the means for producing them economically were at hand).

[Kyle Cherrick]

I know its fairly common knowledge that the US uses a disproportionate amount of oil compared to population.

But when you actually look at the BP World Energy Use Report and see that the US accounts for 24% of world oil consumption while only consisting of 5% of World population.

Meanwhile, China consists of 17% of world population but consumes only 9% of world oil consumption.

Amazing, and sad, and not going to stay the same in the future.

[kit p]

Kyle, you can be proud to be an American because we produce a disproportionate amount of the world goods and services compared to oil we use. We are one of the most energy efficient societies in the world. We also do not horde our wealth but share it with the world. The US is the most charitable country in the world.

I attribute our productivity to the rule of law and the ensuing freedom to explore our ingenuity. It is sad that repression in places like China and North Korea have deprived much of the population of being more than a beasts of burden where authorities do not value their welfare. China produces the same amount of coal as the US but 5000 Chinese miners die a year. The US does consider mine safety state secrets and is more than willing to share the advances we have made.

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