Arthur D. Little is undertaking a study on the Sustainability of Transportation Biofuels aiming to answer the question “given dependency on high oil prices and political support, are transportation biofuels economically sustainable?"
Quoting from their press release:
Despite the current support, there are uncertainties regarding the long-term sustainability of biofuel technologies and applications. This is due to the fact that most biofuels are cost competitive only in times of high oil prices. Also, the competition between fuel crop and food crop needs and the impact on biodiversity may lead to withdrawal or reduction of government support in the long-term. Finally, there is uncertainty regarding those who will be the active players in the value chain. For instance, will there continue to be on-off joint ventures supported by private equity, or will the market be dominated by energy majors and others?
“The biofuel market is thriving in countries which have the most favorable political incentives and availability of cheap feedstocks. But long term survival of the various biofuel options is far from clear, as virtually all are dependent on government support and/or high oil prices,” comments Roger Hill, Head of Arthur D. Littles Global Energy Practice.
Their biofuels website gives some preliminary answers regarding the profit potential. As can be seen from their chart above, only sugar cane ethanol from Brazil is profitable at a $40/bbl crude oil price, and U.S. corn oil is profitable at a slightly higher price of crude. The other supplies require a much higher oil price or substantial subsidies. At this point (in the study) cellulosic ethanol and biobutanol apparently are not considered. Factors other than cost will obviously be studied.
"ECONOMICALLY" Sustainable.
Big ass difference.
Which doesn't even make much sense considering how flooded the system is with subsidies.
Posted by: GreyFlcn | June 12, 2007 at 03:02 PM
I agree there are better ways to obtain power for heating,cooling,lighting,than oil, however they are expensive, even through provided free by mother nature, the products we use to capture these "FREE" products are exspensive! Solar Panel-if the government would stop the war on terrorism, give the money to the American people to buy solar panels, we could heat,cool, and light our homes for nothing! Wind power-another great freebie, cost to produce again a factor, same as solar panels comment! I remember when everyone in rural america had a windmill to pump water,so why not again, except use it to produce electricity to heat, cool and light your home? Because, products used to produce it are so high! The high price of oil-not because of a shortage, but because of greed by big oil that owns the politicians,they want investors to boast their profits, thus this raises oil prices, thus heating oil and gasoline, we have enough oil supply for the next 1,000 plus years, but the US government needs to stop the big oil lobbyist from swaying the politicians, heck Exxon made a mere $10 billion in 1st. quarter? Poor guys! I made a heck of a lot less then that! It was stated by Bin Laden that he would bankrupt America, well with his billions and oil stocks, he is doing just that! Why is diesel so high? This is the bottom of the barrel so to speak! We all know, Bin Laden is working off the greed of the investors and oil execs', and our own government, raise diesel prices, raises food prices!
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Posted by: HID Kit | October 27, 2009 at 11:57 PM