T. Boone Says Oil has Peaked, Alternative Sources Will Begin to Replace Petoleum

T. Boone Pickens says global oil production has reached its peak
Jim Krane, Associated Press, March 1, 2007

Legendary Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens sees today's stubbornly high oil price as evidence that daily global production capacity is at — or very near — its peak.

If demand for crude oil rises beyond the current global output of roughly 85 million barrels per day, Pickens told The Associated Press, prices will rise to compensate and alternative sources of energy will begin to replace petroleum. ...

Pickens predicted oil prices will rise this year to an annual average of around $70 per barrel. On Wednesday, prices settled at $61.79 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. ...

Everything from nuclear, coal, wind, solar, hydrogen and biofuels stands a chance to assuage growing demand for energy, Pickens said.

I have found T. Boone to be quite accurate, but not this time.  We are at a peak of conventional oil, not all oil.  I agree with everything else he said.

Comments

[rincevent]

“Never again will we pump more than 82 million barrels.”
-- T. Boone Pickens, 9th August 2004. On the Kudlow and Cramer Show, MSNBC.
Source: http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2004/08/23/living-with-the-age-of-entropy/

This guy is a scammer. Every year, he comes with news of peak-oil just like Simmons. Neither him, nor anyone knows when the peak is, be it conventional or not.
He is in the oil futures markets and own a hedge funds. What do you think he has done just before claiming to everyone prices will go UP ?

[Cervus]

I don't know if we're at peak yet. But when it does hit, it'll shock everybody, including the experts. And I think it'll be more for political rather than geological reasons.

I read in an article last year that world biofuels production is already equal to about 1.9 million barrels per day of conventional oil.

[David]

Nice article find, Jim.

If you guys are interested, there's a recent article from Bloomberg about investors who are bullish on oil drillers due to an apparent oil scarcity in the face of growing demand worldwide.

T. Boone Pickens is mentioned in the article, and he also took time out at the Doha conference to do a brief video interview with Bloomberg, which you'll find in the article sidebar.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ajvh5bpnZTPg&refer=exclusive

[marcus]

There is a recent post at the The Oil Drum by Stuart Staniford that strongly suggests at least the Saudi's have peaked. I hope its not true.

[Alain Saffel]

I'll agree, unconventional oil has yet to reach its peak.

The reality is that unconventional oil is going to be a lot more expensive to produce (eg Alberta's oil sands), and I suspect that unconventional oil production will not be able to replace the declining conventional oil.

I did a rough calculation for Alberta (where I'll soon be moving) based on proven conventional oil and gas reserves and, assuming the same production level decline over time, Alberta's conventional reserves are done between 2013 to 2015. That is of course, barring any new discoveries. I doubt they'll be making any big discoveries either.

Knowing the problems caused by oil sand production already in Alberta, I highly doubt Alberta could possibly meet the U.S. call to increase oil sand production five-fold.

[amazingdrx]

He is in the oil futures markets and own a hedge funds. What do you think he has done just before claiming to everyone prices will go UP ?

Great information on the 04 "prediction".

Manipulation of markets is what hedge funds do. And oil "experts" help out, especially ones (all of them) who have their money in hedge funds. Hedge funds were invented to facilitate "plausible" deniability to keep these fellers from being "marthastewated" (used as an example of "cleaning up" insider trading).

One anonymous text message from an insider to the hedge fund that trades their own assets and riches follow. That is the norm now, instead of the exception in all trading. That's thereason individual investors are boycotting the markets.

Oil futures have always been a scam due to manipulated information on reserves and production and OPEC production manipulation.

OPEC members trade oil futures, but they know what the production quotas are going to be. That obvious fix that is built into these markets is the elephant in the room.

[warren]

err, a reply to marcus,

Alberta has all the oil the saudis ever had. They have only developed 7% of the oil sands, 93% stands un tapped. it will take oil costs of 80 per barrel to make it worth going after, but oil they have.

The question is, do they have all the water they are going to need? to extract that oil.
and probably not.

[David Moreland]

I don't have money in a hedge fund, but I too believe we are near peak oil. The reason has more to do with economics than geology. There is lots of oil out there, but it is getting so expensive to find and develop that conservation and alternative sources are becoming more viable.

For more details, see my blog.

Energy Guru
www.energy-guru.blogspot.com

[Rod Robbins]

T. Boone Pickens has a black heart and speaks for the wealthy. I just watched him on WSJ and he said raise taxes to make people stop using oil. All that will do is punish the poor that can just squeek by the way fuel prices are now and the wealthy will continue to pump gas for there SUV's. So fat cat Boone if you do not want me to feed my family go ahead and raise my taxes. I have to have fuel to get to work so raise taxes and I will just stay home and start stealinf for a living and or go on welfair.