Toyota: Plug-in Vehicles to be Maketable Within Five Years

The Louisville Currier-Journal, reporting on a visit to the company's plant in Georgetown, Ky., last month, by Toyota Motor Co. Executive Engineer Dave Hermance attributed him as saying that Toyota has pushed down the prices on all major hybrid components by raising production volumes, but "we're reaching the end of those efficiencies."

And those cost cuts have done little more than offset skyrocketing prices for nickel based hybrid batteries. The most likely candidate to replace nickel is lithium.

Hermance thinks it will take about three years to make them viable for hybrid vehicles.

Lithium-based batteries cost a little bit more than nickel-based ones now, but higher production volumes should drive prices down, he said. An added benefit is that lithium can store more electricity with less battery than nickel. That could mean cutting vehicle weight, further improving trunk space and fuel economy, or having higher-capacity batteries.

Higher-capacity batteries could lead to plug-in hybrids. Prototype plug-in hybrids can run longer without using gasoline. That could allow some commutes to be done without using gasoline at all.

Hermance said the first lithium-battery-powered hybrid should be on the road within three years. He expects all hybrids to be lithium-based within 10 years.

"Plug-ins will fall somewhere between there," Hermance said, adding that he expects those vehicles to be marketable within five years.

Comments

[Stephen Boulet]

I wonder whether EEStor has been approached by Toyota, and if Toyota takes them seriously, or whether they as a large corporation could by blind-sided by EEStor if their technology pans out. Large corporations can at times be unaware of disruptive technologies.

GM could leapfrog Toyota with EEstor batteries and an all battery or serial hybrid design. That would depend though on a cluefulness on GM's part that they haven't demonstrated so far.

Stephen

[Harvey D.]

China may be the first and major source on PHEVs from 2008/2009 onward because....

All successful present and future battery manufacturers have/will have large plants in China, where they can mass produce them faster at a much lower cost.

The Chinese electronic industries can build the control systems much cheaper and in very large quantities.

The Chinese car industries can easily mass produce different size of cars and light trucks to fit the batteries and control system in.

India could do it too a few years latter.

I wouldn't expect GM (USA) to move quickly enough. Memories of the EV1 are still around.

Toyota and Honda could use their Chinese plants to mass produce PHEVs at a very competitive price but they will be delayed by Trade Mark protection. They can't afford a flop (or semi-flop) that would tarnish their image. They will test the first generation in Japan for 3+ years.

[greg]

Stephen: Agreed...but as you pointed out, it would require a heavy dose of clue pills for GM and to date, GM seems to be fresh out of 'em. If ever there was an opportunity for a company to pull themselves out of a mess in a jiffy, this would be it. GM is too big and corroded to get out of its own way. I would love nothing more than to be wrong about GM, but their history and current actions show otherwise.

[amazingdrx]

Good guesstimating as usual Harvey!

Subaru is the one exception. But is it really, since most of it's electric cars will probably be made in China?

I still see the image of electric car showrooms in Walmart, hehehey.

12k electric cars with a 100 mile range, with either and extra 100 mile battery pack or a fuel cell/microturbine backup generator, available for an extra 2k.

Once China owns the controlling interest in Walmart? How could US execs give up the electronics industry, retail industry, and now even the auto industry to China? What a brain trust.

[Harvey D.]

amazingdrx:

Empires rise and fall. The cycles seem to be getting shorter.

Over 2.5 billion people in China and India will certainly make the difference.

The transistion has been going on at a high rate for 10 + years. If it continues at the same rate, the next shift may come sooner then many people think.

Yes, China will soon have their own Microsoft, (and their own Internet) Walmart, McDonald, IBM, GM etc. Will India be able to keep up? If so, this would accellerate the next shift from Europe/USA to Asia and pave the way for the following one.

Let's hope that the next transistion goes smoothly and commercial wars don't turn into the real thing. The quest for riches, power, markets and dominance are often precursors to major conflicts.

[amazingdrx]

"The quest for riches, power, markets and dominance are often precursors to major conflicts."

Yes Harvey, excellent! Keep up the good work. Historical perspective is very good.

I'm sending links to key discussions here to my new congressman (I volunteered for).

[Jimmi]

Hey Harvey,

He's a few things about what China's doing...

HARBIN, CHINA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- Sep 06, 2006 -- Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (OTCBB: ABAT), a developer and manufacturer of rechargeable Polymer-Lithium-Ion (PLI) batteries, announced today that the Company successfully manufactured a nanometer battery for the world's first "nanopower" electric scooter. Aiyingsi Co., Ltd., a Taiwan-based manufacturer of scooters, motorcycles, and cars, contracted with Advance Battery to develop, test and produce a reliable nanometer battery for Aiyingsi's new electric scooter. The Zhong Qiang Institute of Research, based in Harbin, China, performed a 25 day continuous running test on the scooter and the test results showed the scooter could consistently maintain speeds of up to 18.75 miles/hour with a range of 28 miles per charge; the new "nanopower" battery only took 15 minutes to fully re-charge. The scooter employs a pack of nanometer battery cells of 5.8 Ah, 2.2 V. with a capacity equal to or greater than 720W/L and the cycle life equal to or greater than 4,000 times. The new nanometer battery was also tested extensively for safety using piercing, puncturing and pressure squeezing; the battery did not catch fire or explode. The Company believes this battery technology breakthrough is another important milestone in their product line for a growing "alternative energy" market.

But guess who's supplying the nano material =)...

RENO, NV. – April 19, 2005 – Altair Nanotechnologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTI) announced today the initial shipment of battery electrode nanomaterials to Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (OTCBB: ABAT) that will be used in the manufacture and testing of prototype polymer lithium batteries. Advanced Battery designs and markets Polymer-Lithium-Ion (PLI) batteries that are manufactured in its subsidiary, based in Harbin, China. Altair previously announced a partnering agreement with ABAT on April 4, 2005.

Just thought I'd put out some trivial info.

[amazingdrx]

Great stuff Jimmi! The best world beating technology made in the US passed over by US automakers, and it goes straight to China.

As usual.

[Jimmi]

Hey Doc,

I thought you might find that intresting. I was hoping ABAT takes off in China being I'm a lil biased with Altair. I'm all for the US ecomnomy and companies but in a global economy... if you want things to get done... do it in China. Low labor costs, low manufacturing costs, production turn-over rates, and not to mention a government that is very friendly to alternative energy solutions because of their pollution problems. I said it before in an earlier post and I'll say it again... Wouldn't it be funny if China becomes a world leader in alternative energy solutions while at the same time taking over the US economy and become #1 =)

By the way.. no reply from Altair about my letter I sent them. Looks like I need to write the Virginia Port Athority about Altair =b

[doug korthof]

Dave Hermance is a notorious liar. The plug-in cars are available now with Toyota's own battery, but Toyota refuses to produce them.

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