The Oil Drum has an excellent in-depth article, as usual, that takes a closer look at the prospectivity, geology, economics, technology, reservoirs, hydrocarbons and logistics of the Lower Tertiary play in the Gulf of Mexico (LTGOM), the whole region, not just the Jack-2 discovery (earlier post).
With the successful test drilling of Jack-2 in the ultra deepwater Gulf of Mexico, there has been a media blitz proclaiming the good news. The "peak oil" theory is under attack. Business Week's September 7, 2006 article Plenty of Oil--Just Drill Deeper The discovery of reserves in the Gulf of Mexico means supply isn't topping out, is one of the most blatant attacks which the OD refutes point by point with the following conclusion: Business Week's assertion that really, really ultra-deepwater production from offshore regions like the LTGOM will "tip the balance of supply and demand in the long term" globally is unwarranted speculation.
Three of of their points that are consistent with my views and which I consider very important are :
1) US petroleum production averaged 5.093/mbd in the first 7 months of 2006. Assuming a generous future decline rate of about 5% for the US as a whole, production will be 4.149/mbd in 2010, a net decline of 0.944/mbd. Future production from the LTGOM might be 0.500/mbd sometime after that. If we add production from fields like Chevron's Tahiti, which is expected "to have a maximum daily production of 125,000 barrels", then it is reasonable to expect that Gulf of Mexico production will be a wash—declines will be offset six to eight years from now in the best case.
2) The current "peak oil" bashing going on in the media is more an indication of underlying concerns about the long term supply situation, not a refutation of peak oil theories. Those concerned about global oil depletion have never said that the world is running out of oil in the near-term or denied that advanced technology can increase recoverable reserves.
3) Rather than indicating continued abundance in oil supply, such measures may be viewed more accurately as indicating the great lengths oil producers must go to in order to find more oil to meet the world's insatiable demand. The "low-hanging fruit" is gone and so is the era of the cheap oil. Ultimately, this is the meaning of the Jack-2 test well and hopes for production from the Lower Tertiary of the Gulf of Mexico.
There are many more good points in the post which are well worth the read.
Peak oil advocates are constantly re-defining what peak oil is supposed to be. It's the rear-guard action of a losing force. We're getting much better instruments for finding oil fields. It's only getting worse for the peak oil folks.
Old Drum blog is being a dishonest partisan, unfortunately. The reason I like energy blog by Jim is the relative absence of such partisanship.
Old Drum's arguments couldn't punch their way out of a soggy paper bag.
Posted by: Rickover | September 12, 2006 at 10:25 AM
The definition of "peak oil" hasn't changed. Talking points and political motivation does change, however. Moreover, while our technology does increase the chances of finding harder-to-get oil, the fact that there will be another oil crisis--which will lead to an oil extinction--is insurmountable. The "peak oil folks" have it in our best interests to consider the inevitable future, no matter how far away it may be. (Like my pa always says, better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.)
Oil Drum might be sensational, but reason dictates responsible decision-making. There should always be some foresight into the future, no matter how distant--especially in regard to definite futures.
Posted by: BrianK | September 13, 2006 at 08:14 AM
Peak oil, schmeak oil. It just doesn't matter, to anyone except oil futures traders. And that's all perception of market fiction.
Global climate disaster from fossil fuel combustion, that is the event to consider.
When easy to find and pump oil runs low,this deep water oil,siberian oil, the new Chinese oil fields,the heavy oil in Venezuala, oil from tar sands, coal to liquid fuel, synthetic fuel will still be available for the right price. Not to mention all that oil that will become available once the arctic ice cap melts.
And this isn't even figuring in all the oil that robotic submarines could find and develop. It's down there beyond present drilling technology.
Why obsess over it? It's a distraction. Why not just convert to battery electric plugin hybrids with fuel cell backup generation?
Survival depends on it.
Posted by: amazingdrx | September 13, 2006 at 09:14 AM
Well the announcement is only one part of the bigger picture... the "Oil-patched-quilt" like structure of global supply and demand...
Remember -
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) – “Mexican crude oil output at Cantarell, the world's second-largest field, fell faster than expected in June to a four-year low, signaling the government will miss production targets. The field, which accounts for about half of Mexico's crude production, yielded 1.74 million barrels a day in June, 13 percent less than a year ago and the least since November 2001, according to data on the Energy Ministry's web site. Cantarell is the world's No. 2 field by output and Mexico's biggest.”
“Production is falling faster than the government anticipated, worsening the outlook for Mexican crude exports and public finances. Petroleos Mexicanos, the state oil monopoly, forecast Cantarell output would decline 6 percent this year to average 1.9 million barrels per day.
`The situation is probably much graver than the government would like us to think it is,'' said David Shields, an independent oil consultant based in Mexico City who has covered the industry for 18 years. ``Oil production and oil exports are going to decline considerably over the next three years.''
Officials at Pemex, as the oil company is known, weren't available for comment today, a company spokesman in Mexico City said.
Chief Financial Officer Juan Jose Suarez Coppel will hold a conference call tomorrow to discuss second-quarter earnings. Pemex hasn't published second-quarter output by fields on its web site.
Production at Cantarell has averaged 1.84 million barrels daily during the first six months of the year, 10 percent less than in the same period a year ago, according to Energy Ministry data. Taxes on oil sales account for almost 40 percent of the Mexican government's revenue."
PEAK OIL IS REAL - WE IGNORE IT AT OUR PERIL
The UK has already reached our peak - and is going to be struggling in the long term without some urgent decisions soon. And some newer - readily available technologies too!
I'm back from moving house - good to see you're back James - last time I logged in you were on your summer break!
Excellent blog - I've recommended it to friends and contacts in academia and industry!
Posted by: mcr | September 16, 2006 at 06:56 PM
Well the announcement is only one part of the bigger picture... the "Oil-patched-quilt" like structure of global supply and demand...
Remember -
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) – “Mexican crude oil output at Cantarell, the world's second-largest field, fell faster than expected in June to a four-year low, signaling the government will miss production targets. The field, which accounts for about half of Mexico's crude production, yielded 1.74 million barrels a day in June, 13 percent less than a year ago and the least since November 2001, according to data on the Energy Ministry's web site. Cantarell is the world's No. 2 field by output and Mexico's biggest.”
“Production is falling faster than the government anticipated, worsening the outlook for Mexican crude exports and public finances. Petroleos Mexicanos, the state oil monopoly, forecast Cantarell output would decline 6 percent this year to average 1.9 million barrels per day.
`The situation is probably much graver than the government would like us to think it is,'' said David Shields, an independent oil consultant based in Mexico City who has covered the industry for 18 years. ``Oil production and oil exports are going to decline considerably over the next three years.''
Officials at Pemex, as the oil company is known, weren't available for comment today, a company spokesman in Mexico City said.
Chief Financial Officer Juan Jose Suarez Coppel will hold a conference call tomorrow to discuss second-quarter earnings. Pemex hasn't published second-quarter output by fields on its web site.
Production at Cantarell has averaged 1.84 million barrels daily during the first six months of the year, 10 percent less than in the same period a year ago, according to Energy Ministry data. Taxes on oil sales account for almost 40 percent of the Mexican government's revenue."
PEAK OIL IS REAL - WE IGNORE IT AT OUR PERIL
The UK has already reached our peak - and is going to be struggling in the long term without some urgent decisions soon. And some newer - readily available technologies too!
I'm back from moving house - good to see you're back James - last time I logged in you were on your summer break!
Excellent blog - I've recommended it to friends and contacts in academia and industry!
Posted by: mcr | September 16, 2006 at 06:56 PM
There are great explanations by informed people on this site about how the status of oil supplies and prices have come to be what they are, but to me it is pretty boring reading. There seems to be one entry after the other about how it is in the market place. It makes me wonder if there are just one or two people who contribute to this who say well thats it and the other says yep. Wow, how indebth that is. I am not going to visit this site again, if all this rummyrot is going to continue, unless someone is willing to face the real issue of refining capacity. There is no oil shortage. There is a shortage of refining capacity and until someone does something about that capacity, there is going to be continuance of these high oil prices. It makes me sick that there are so many articles about the price of oil and nothing about what can be done about refining it. Personally I believe that everyone in the industry and those connected to it should demand governmental action to increase refining capacities instead of just saying yep..oil went up again..next thing you know it'll be 80 dollars.. I think there are things that can be done by the governments that will bring down the price of oil to a more acceptable price level, if anyone had the guts to do it. To me it would be a lot more interesting to see what can be brought about it more of you informed people would expose the weakness in refining and offer suggestions on improving it.. SOMEONE HAS TO HAVE THE GUTS TO FORCE THE OIL COMPANIES TO BUILD REFINERIES AND IF THEY DON'T DO IT, THEN THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BUILD THEM. I wonder if there is anyone besides me that thinks there could be a better more productive effort to bring this about, before our economy is ruined by lilly livered politicans and four dollar gasoline.
Posted by: JW Horne | July 26, 2007 at 01:28 PM
i wish this would work. this would make things so easier.
Posted by: oilfield equipment | May 03, 2009 at 01:49 PM
Hope that would work
Posted by: Alex | December 01, 2009 at 11:16 AM
I have always wanted to play drums, but not knowing anybody who actually plays them, I haven't done anything about it. Can anybody tell me some good brands and songs for a beginner? Thanks.
Posted by: generic viagra | April 08, 2010 at 12:25 PM
How to greatly reduce overall sound of drums?
I live in an apartment and play the drums. When I practice I really tick off the neighbors bc as you know drums are really loud. Anyone have any ideas how to greatly reduce the sound besides buying a drum shield?
Posted by: sildenafil soft tabs | April 23, 2010 at 01:43 PM