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« Medicine Bow Coal-to-Liquids Project Moves Ahead | Main | Franklin Fuels Direct Oxidation SOFC's »

August 17, 2006


Jeff Olney

I'd like to know who drew that graph, too.

Biomass grows until 2040, drops in 2090, then levels off??? What stops the biomass plunge in 2090? Why would a company chunk its reputation by drawing a graph like this? It's aridiculous graph.

Mike @ HCVN

If you didn't notice it, REC is the silicon supplier to Evergreen solar. They were discussed in an earlier post on the blog.

Daniel O'Donnell

Output to double - is this new process more efficient or are they just increasing capacity with a new plant?

Judging from their financials the company is seeing good growth: http://www.recgroup.no/default.asp?V_ITEM_ID=611&xml=/R/136555/PR/200608/1067317.xml


It is a funny graph, but mainly because they expect solar to take off in 30-40 years. What kind of company invests heavily today because their industry might take off in 30+ years?

Jeff: it is the area between the lines that indicates the technologies share; biomass doesn't drop until about 2070-2080...it then grows strongly after 2090...presumably because nuclear/gas drops precipitously at that point. Nevertheless any graph that tries to predict fuel sources 100 years out is opening itself to ridicule.

D. O'Donnell: as I read it they are doubling capacity, and as an added bonus the new process is more efficient.


It is a cumulative graph. Their is a severe shortage of SOG with more coutries offering incentives, now is a great time to increase capacity and a great plus if it is even marginally more efficient.

We will see in the long run how this competes with thin film.


Can anyone give me some more perspective on the following questions:

(1) Typical capacity sizes of plants using Siemens reactors vs. FBR

(2) Primary cost components of manufacturing poly-silicon using the Siemens reactor vs. FBR (ie. % electricity, %raw feedstock, % operations/labor, etc.)?

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