A preliminary draft of the PHOTON Consulting's (Germany) Solar Annual 2006 has been posted and forecasts an optimistic future for the solar industry. Some highlights:
- Six-fold production growth (40 to 50% annual growth) through the end of the decade.
- Demand will significantly exceed supply through the end of the decade.
- Production will reach at least 10 GW by 2010 (530% growth versus 2005).
- Production of Si feedstock rising from 32,000 tons in 2005 to at least 85,000 tons in 2010.
- Silicon usage per W to improve by more than 30%, from 10.5 g/W today to 7 g/W in 2010.
- Realistic potential for non-c-Si to expand from 0.15 GW (9% market share) in 2005 to 2 GW (20% market share) in 2010.
- With demand outstripping supply, prices will remain firm and revenue will expand quickly from $12.4 bn in 2005 to $18.8 bn in 2006 (51% growth) and $27 bn in 2007 (44% growth).
- Costs are falling 7 to 10% throughout the supply chain (with exception of silicon) and pre-tax margins will continue to expand from 25% in 2005 to more than 30% in 2006 and more than 35% in 2007.
- Modular global average selling price ($/W) will increase from $3.70 in 2005 to $4.50 in 2007 and then down to $4.00 in 2010.
- Installed system global average selling price ($W) will increase from $7.53 in 2005 t0 $8.00 in 2006 and then decrease to $6.95 in 2010.
- Up companies with the strongest growth prospects include REC, Tokuyama and Hemlock.
- In the middle of the supply chain, Evergreen, Motech, Q-Cells, REC, Sharp, SolarWorld, SunPower and Suntech appear likely to achieve explosive growth.
This information has been extracted from a rough draft and all data, companies and comments are preliminary and subject to change. The complete report will be published by PHOTON in July and copies can be ordered for 1,110 Euro plus VAT.
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