Energy Usage Forecast

The June issue of Popular Science features an article on energy technologies that they say will cut our oil consumption in half and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels to produce electricity almost entirely by 2025.

They forecast that ultralight parts and plug-in hybrids could reduce fossil fuel consumption by 19% and that use of biofuels could reduce fossil fuel consumption by 30%.

Electricity needs could be reduced by the following technologies and conservation.

Home Electricity Conservation - 36%
Wind - 20%
Biopower - 17% (biomass gasification and methane generation)
Distributed Generation - 10%
Solar Power - 10% (PV and thermal solar power)
Geothermal Power - 5%
Ocean Power - 2% (wave power and tidal power)

While I don't think that I would have come up with the same numbers, the numbers give some idea of what mix of technologies could be used to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.  My two concerns are that, while that degree of conservation proposed is possible, electricity costs would have to be extremely high before sufficient motivation for this degree of conservation would be possible.  After reducing consumption as much as forecast by conservation the percentage of electricity produced by wind, solar, and ocean power is higher than could easily be integrated into a grid, without massive energy storage or a much stronger grid, because of the intermittency of these generation methods.  Economical energy storage on a large scale is unlikely by 2025.  Geographical separation of these methods in an area as large as the U.S. reduces the effects of intermittency, but a much stronger grid is required to transport the energy from one area to another which would mean a very costly investment in the electrical infrastructure.  The area between the great plains and the east coast is not especially suitable for these methods and the grid would have to be reinforced significantly in this area. Superconducting power transmission would be especially useful, but development of economical systems is progressing rather slowly, although some usage could be expected by 2025.

I would hope that plug-in vehicles would be in wider use by this time, but that is very dependent on the acceptance of the technology by manufacturers. Their forecast for use of biofuels, although possible someday, is very unlikely by 2025.

The articles (without statistics) can be viewed at http://www.popsci.com/popsci/energy/

Comments

[Michael Cain]

My two concerns are that, while that degree of conservation proposed is possible, electricity costs would have to be extremely high before sufficient motivation for this degree of conservation would be possible.

An excellent point. It is worth noting that current federal policy of separating electricity generation from the utilities that aggregate consumer demand has the effect of shifting incentives for demand management from generators to consumers. When the system was integrated, and utilities were allowed to include the capital costs of demand management in place of new generating capacity in their rate base, the large companies, with cheaper access to money, had an incentive to make such investments. When you can only make money by generating and selling electricity, or by transporting it from generator to consumer, the incentives for the large companies are gone. The difference in incentives also changes what approaches are considered: how many consumers will pay for smart meters and the back-office infrastructure needed to do time-of-day billing?

[CleanAir]

If you are interested in what Pennsylvania is doing to help the environment or are interested in Pennsylvania's environment, you should check out the Citizens for Pennsylvania's Future website: www.pennfuture.org

[Chet Esium]

"the percentage of electricity produced by wind, solar, and ocean power is higher than could easily be integrated into a grid, without massive energy storage"

10% solar can easily be integrated into the grid. Solar PV is reliably produced when it is hot and sunny which is when peak demands occur. 2% ocean can be trivially integrated into the grid -- it isn't variable power. Wind and solar are complementary to some extent: the wind tends to blow on overcast days and not blow on sunny days.

Non-renewable coal, nuclear, and gas-fired power plants are also intermittent. They sometimes get taken off line for maintenance or system failure. Solar and Wind tend not to suffer from this problem.

The electric industry is currently working on a variety of demand shifting techniques to better align consuption of electricity with production. That is, there is currently a lot of effort being taken to shift consumption from daylight hours to nighttime hours so that nuclear, coal, and baseload gas fired plants can be used more efficiently. These same techniques can be used to allow renewables to widely penetrate the grid. Specifically, instead of pumping water to the tops of hills to pressurize the water system during nighttime hours, we can pump that water during sunny or windy hours. (And water pumping accounts for something like 7% of electricity use in california.)

The article didn't say "conservation" it said "efficiency".
Efficiency improvements does not require higher electricity prices. People will substitute compact florescents and (eventually) LED lighting for incandescent lighting at current prices. Also, it isn't a matter of changing electricity consumption in existing housing. Efficiency is obtained through better construction techniques (more insulation) and higher efficiency appliances in new housing.

[Scott]

If you want to conserve energy then a Home Energy Audit by the Energy Doctors will help.

http://www.energydoctors.org

[Greg]

I am trying to find the energy usage forecast by industry in the geographic region of upstate NY through 2011. ie. What is the estimated monthly gas and electric usage for the steel industry in upstate NY through 2011? I need this for all major industries. Any thoughts? Suggested websites?

THANKS!

[Kit P]

Local utilities often have resource planning documents. Also try eia,gov and state energy commissions.

[Beverly Nelson]

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