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March 01, 2006



Of course Lord Browne dismisses renewables. That is his job, to talk up the value of his company's natural gas reserves.

But he's hardly the right person to ask, whether renewable energy will be able to make a significant dent in global consumption of fossil fuels. Even if BP does stand for beyond petroleum...

As you rightly put, Jim, there are huge fossil resources that will be commercially viable at a stable oil price of $100/bbl. But so will most developed renewable energy sources. At those (sustained) prices, plug-in-hybrids fueled by wind and solar starts to look really interesting.

In energy terms, one barrel of oil is approx. 1,700 kWh. But few cars turn more than 20% of the chemical energy in to power (mechanical/electrical), which means that one barrel of oil is worth 340 kWh. That gives a cost in the car of approximately 30 cents/kWh (not including tax and cost of refinery). Electricity retails for about 9 c/kWh. Well-sited, modern wind turbines can produce electricity at 5-6 c/kWh. This looks feasible to me...

Of course the fuel savings are offset by added initial cost of the hybrid drivetrain.

About natural gas. I seems to me that everyone wants natural gas these days. If we are going to use it for both power generation and motor fuel, it will deplete much faster than oil fields. Remember, tapping a natural gas field is like letting air out of a balloon! Drill a big enough hole, and it flows out very fast in the beginning, only to decline exponentially. And there is no such thing as enhanced recovery.

Betting on renewable may not be 100% safe in monetary terms, but in terms of energy security, you could do a lot worse!



If we magically replaced all gasoline consumption (at an assumed 20% efficiency) with electricity consumption by plug-in hybrids or pure electric vehicles (at an assumed 50% efficency) U.S. electric consumption would increase by about half (from 10.9 million MWh/day to 16.5 million MWh/day). Clearly this won't happen, but it's worth bearing in mind the magnitude of increased electricity consumption. To support widespread electric vehicle adoption our present generation and transmission system would require very substantial reinforcement (even assuming off-peak charging of vehicles), and fuel consumed by generators would increase proportionately. All this to say that we should expect only incremental progress in improving our energy situation, and that diversity (of supply and of appurtenant system types) is indeed critical.


Note, bean, that the issue of new infrastructure required to reinforce the electric grid and supply to transition to electric vehicles is also true of a transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles: a large infrastructure investment is required there as well, except that with electric vehicles, you only need to upgrade an existing infrastructure (the grid) and one that is significantly more efficienct (on a well-to-wheels basis) than a 'hydrogen economy'.

Jason Makansi

The job of a CEO of a huge conglomerate like Lord Browne isn't to "dismiss renewables" but to protect current sources of revenue while finding new ones. In fact, BP is probably the most aggressively "green" International oil company (IOC) and not just in advertising and PR. But by necessity, a "big ship" like BP doesn't just turn on a dime. It makes incremental moves based on a very dynamic forecast of future trends. When you really dig into the company, they have very clever ideas for extracting better environmental performance. Two are: (1) A complete redesign of LNG liquefaction facilities to reduce emissions and boost output (I am not a fan of LNG imports into this country but at least they are thinking the right way) and installing large wind turbine/generators on thier existing energy production and brownfield sites.

ティファニー 激安

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国内初のティファニー ウォッチ専門店となる同ショールームには、新作ウォッチがいち早く店頭に並ぶだけでなく、さまざまなフェアやイベントも開催される予定となっている。時計の専門知識を持つスタッフにより、利用客の要望にもきめ細かく対応するという。ティファニー 激安
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「ティファニー ジェメア」は、18カラットのホワイトゴールドで作られた樽型のケースが特徴で、たくさんのダイヤモンドを散りばめた宝飾時計に仕上がっている。ダイヤモンド1列のモデルとダイヤモンド2列のモデルのほかに、時計の表面に610個のダイヤモンド(3.12カラット)を敷き詰めたフルパヴェのモデルも用意。Tiffany locksこれらの3モデルを、直径22mm / 18mmの2パターンで展開する。ティファニー
その他、ショールームのオープンを記念し、日本初登場となる「ステートメント ウォッチ」「5thアヴェニュー ウォッチ」なども特別展示されるティファニー
アメリカを代表する世界のプレミア?ジュエラー、ティファニーは1837年の創設以来、時を越えて多くの人々を魅了してきた。ティファニーのジュエリー、シルバー、ウォッチ、そのデザインの数々は何世代にもわたって世界中で愛され続けている。ティファニー 通販

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