Ethanol Outlook 2006

From Niche to Nation: Ethanol Outlook 2006  just released by the the Renewable Fuels Association "reflects the unprecedented growth that has occurred over the past several years.  Once serving just a niche market in the Midwest, ethanol is now a ubiquitous component of the U.S. transportation fuels market as ethanol is now sold from coast to coast and is now blended in 30% of the nations gasoline."

This 24 page report deserves a read by anyone interested in ethanol. A couple of excerpts follow:

In response to rising demand, U.S. ethanol production broke both monthly and annual production records for 2005. For the year, 95 ethanol refineries located in 19 states produced a record 4 billion gallons, an increase of 17% from 2004 and 126% since 2001.

Fourteen new refineries were completed and brought online in 2005. These new refineries, combined with expansions at existing facilities, resulted in record annual capacity growth of 779 million gallons. At the end of 2005, 29 ethanol refineries and nine expansions were under construction with a combined annual capacity of more than 1.5 billion gallons.

Another excerpt is:

A recent study found that the U.S. could produce the equivalent of 7.9 million barrels of oil per day by 2050, more than 50% of our current total oil use for transportation. Biofuels could:

• Virtually eliminate our demand for gasoline by 2050
• Be cheaper than gasoline and diesel, saving about $20 billion per year on fuel costs by 20
• Increase farmers profits by more than $5 billion per year by 2025
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1.7 billion tons per year, equal to more than 80% of our transportation-related emissions in 2002

Source: 'Bringing Biofuels to the Pump: An Aggressive Plan for Ending America's Oil Dependence,” Natural Resources Defense Council, July 2005

Several new technologies to produce byproducts to reduce energy consumption are described in the report along with an outlook for Cellulosic Ethanol Production.

Thanks for tip from Scott at the Bioconversion Blog

Technorati tags: biofuels, ethanol, energy, technology

Comments

[JesseJenkins]

"A recent study found that the U.S. could produce the equivalent of 7.9 million barrels of oil per day by 2050, more than 50% of our current total oil use for transportation. Biofuels could:

Virtually eliminate our demand for gasoline by 2050"

OK, there's a bit of misleading going on here. Even if that 7.9 mm bbl/d figure is correct, and it seems ambitious, as even they report, that's half of our current transportation demand, not our demand in 2050. How can they say it will "virtually eliminate our demand for gasoline by 2050" when at maximum, it could contribute less than half our transportation energy demand?!

That's not to say ethanol couldn't provide a decent chunk of our transport needs, but it's quite misleading to say it would virtually eliminate our demand for gasoline. Why do they have to try to hype it like that when it is so obviously untrue and contradicts their previous sentance?

Besides, I don't imagine that they used a well-to-wheels analysis to get those figures. If they did, they would have to factor in all the energy use needed to farm the ethanol which would probably take quite a large chunk out of that 7.9 mm bbl/d figure as well.

[Jim from The Energy Blog]

I was careful to put those comments in quotes and give the source. Sometimes I would rather have my readers comment. Besides I do not have enough time to do good enough research to properly comment on all of my posts. I have found that trade associations may not fully explain everything or take items out of context but they do express an opinion that I believe deserves publication.

[JesseJenkins]

Jim, I meant my comment to in no way disparage you or your reporting on this blog. I was mearly pointing out an inconcsistency in the Ethanol Outlook report, which you did clearly mark as an exerpt.

I appreciate the mostly nuetral stance you take in all your reporting (with any opinionated comments clearly demarcated by an italic 'commentary' section) and I was not implying that you were being misleading, but rather that the authors of the Ethanol Outlook were clearly contradicting themselves and presenting misleading figures.

[Nike Novillo]

Hello, thanks for the data.
I just wanted to point out that although the report gives some figures about what the US production might be, it doesn't state that the country could supply all the required biofuel to sustitute gasoline by 2050. When it says that "biofuels can eliminate the gasoline demand", it is not refering just to US biofuel, but biofuels in general. I don't think there is a contradiction there.

[Ethanol Blog]

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