According to this Nov. 16, 2005 AP article Katsuhiko Machida, the president of Sharp Corp. predicted:
that by around 2010 the electricity fee for home using solar power could be halved from the current 47 yen (40 cents) per kilowatt hour to 23 yen (19 cents), the same as current rates for conventional electric power generated by oil and coal.
I think its great that the price of PV solar will be cut in half in the next five years. This is fine for Japan where electric rates are that high, but where do we (in the rest of the world) stand? According to Solarbuzz the average price for industrial Solar energy (500kW installation, worldwide average in sunny climates, 5.5 hrs sun/day, Japan is not quite that sunny) costs are $0.213 per kWh or $4.95 per watt for November 2005 and according to an article in REA today the 62 MW Girassol plant in Portugal (BP panels) is $4.71 per watt. There should be a bigger discount for a megaproject, but that is what the numbers are or more likely the Solarbuzz index is a little off from the real world. Installation runs about 1/2 of the total plant cost, and if that ratio remains the same (optimistically) then according to Sharp, in five years we might be in the neighborhood of $2.50/watt which would be roughly $0.10 per kWh. That is not competive for base load power now, but is very competitive with peak load power. The people that sell thin film photovoltaics are predicting their cost will be $1.00 to $1.50 per watt at that time which would lead to about the same costs. The cost of solar panels has been rising since June 2004, that situation should be remedied sometime when silicon supplies catch up with demand. In the meantime there is an opening for thin film and Daystar and Ovonics are increasing production rapidly, but are far behind Sharp and the other leaders. I guess that makes me more optimistic than I ever have been about photovolataics. Of course then there is themal solar....
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"Of course then there is themal solar...."
Yeah, I don't get very excited over news like this about PVs anymore when I've already heard news like this and this for solar thermal.
However, this kind of talk about PVs does get me excited...
Posted by: JesseJenkins | November 18, 2005 at 01:42 AM