Solar Power as Viewed by an Investor

Solar Powered: An Emerging Growth Industry Facing Serious Growth Constraints as well as being a good examination of the silicon shortage (p 25-29) is an excellent review of the market and sales outlook for the PV solar market (p 20-27), a good introduction to the manufacturing process (p 29-31),  a brief solar technology review (P 32-37) and a in depth examination of two players in the non-silicon solar industry.  Prepared by Piper Jaffray it has been made available to the public in this 68 page pdf.  The review of solar technology is extremely good for anyone who needs a concise overview of the subject. 

They state, p 21: "With strong demand worldwide, we anticiapate the solar industry to achiee 24% annual growth through 2004.  We We anticipate that the polysilicon shortage will limit solar cell production through 2007 until significant new capacity comes online in 2008.  However, we anticipate that the non-silicon players will experience a higher, 34% annual growth through 2010."  Their analysis, p 23, concludes "Although the the demands remains robust, megawatt production growth will be capped at 5% in 2006 and 24% in 2007 due to the polysilicon shortage. ... Most module manufacturers have sold out through 2006.  ... We understand that polysilicon contracts are sold out for 2006 and 2007.  ...  we estimate that the non-polysilicon wafer solar market (including thin film and string ribbon) will grow production by 49% in 2006 and 52% in 2007.  Although non--polysilicon solar technologies ... have lower cell efficiencies we do not think that this will inhibit broad adoption.  The solar industry has become enamored of cell efficiencies ... what matters is cost per watt."  Later they go on to say "Technology improvements and cost reductions will make solar competitive.  We assume 5% cost reduction per year through 2010 and that module cost will be reduced to $2.50 per watt. (for silicon which, they state elsewhere, currently has 94% of the market) We believe the technology roadmap and cost curves are more aggressive for thin-film companies and anticipate module costs of $1.75 per watt in 2010. ... effectively reducing leveled solar electricity cost fro $0.35/kWh today to $0.21/kWh excluding subsidies. 

The report, although quite objective on most points, obviously leads up to their initiating coverage of Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR) and Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Unisolar) (ENER) about which they say "Both companies are distinguished by proprietary technology for manufacturing lower cost solar power modules that, ultimately, even without subsidies, will be cost competitive with the grid.  Both companies posses unique technology that reduces or eliminates the need for polysilicon."  ESLR uses string ribbon technology and ESLR produces thin film triple-junction modules using a silane gas deposition process.

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Comments

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Any mention in there of nanosolar?

[Bob]

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Explained here: tnns.org/solar

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Today, many people are starting to use our renewable energy as an alternative. It is a very cheap option. Solar panels and wind turbines are mostly used by households today to generate electricity from solar and wind energy.