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May 04, 2005



Do you think using coal and gasification/Fischer-Tropsch is going to be as easy as he made it sound?

It seemed to me, not an expert in any way, that if coal -> diesel conversion is economical at $40/bbl then ... no problem.

(until we consider greenhouse gases, but there I think he showed pretty well that people won't wake up until it is too late.)


I am going on the statemnents made by Hirsch, who has the resources to determine the cost, that it can be done at that price. In a few years, when oil production is declining, we will have no choice but to pay whatever the cost is. We have no other liquid fuel that can totally make up the differance between demand and supply. Natural gas liquefaction appears to be the way big oil is going now, but that is only a stop gap measure that will use up our natural gas reserves. The U.S can only make up, at best, 1/3 of its liquid fuel demand from domestic production of biofuels. Brazil currently is exporting a little, but no one else is. Conservation, as motivated by increasing fuel prices and the availability of plug-in hybrids, will play an important role. In about 2050 world population is projected to start stabilizing, reducing the rate of growth of demand. There will still be a lot of growth as underdevoped countries increase their per capital consumption at some equilibrium value. During this time, after their is quite a bit of increase in greenhouse gases, global warming should start to become less of an issue as nuclear power, clean coal power with CO2 sequestration and biofuels become more prevalent. I can not predict when these measures will all come together and some sort of stabilization reached, certainly more than 50 years. We are going to have a rough road until that happens. That will be the end of "The Energy Revolution."


Calvin Jones

I have just started a climate change blog. The main blog page
will be dedicated to climate change news and campaign links. There is
a sister site entitled climate change resources which is intended to
provide links to all the reports and articles a read in an attempt to
produce a incitefull blog. I have just started the site but please
have a look and decide for youreself if you would like to link to it.

the sister site is


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