A recent article in Yahoo News discussed China's plans regarding energy usage. Several Chinese leaders were reported as saying that China intended to avoid over-dependence on imported energy by 2020, through increased use of domestic renewable sources. China's oil imports were about 40% of supply in 2004. They hope to reduce their dependence on foreign imports to 35% by 2020. Conservation and non-coal sources such as nuclear power, wind power, solar and other and other renewable sources will be used to meet their demands.
A related story in the China Daily quoted Wang Tao, senior vice-president of the World Petroleum Congress as saying "Energy supplies, especially oil supply, cannot meet the demand of the soaring economy". The story went on to report statistics indicating that China was more dependent on coal than oil. China has vast reserves in coal, second only to the U.S. but only about 1/2 of the U.S. according to EIA. The story indicated that China could enhance its oil exploration efforts. In the next 15 years China will quadruple its economy but its energy consumption will only double.
A March 23 presentation by James Dorian PhD, an international energy economist, gave a westerners assessment of China's energy search. Some excerpts from the presentation are: "The recent growth in oil and energy demand is certainly part of a long-term trend. ... Coal makes up 70% of their energy mix ... Coal mining accidents, transportation bottlenecks and inefficient planning ... have put additional stresses on an already highly strained electric system ... IEA estimate that more than $100 billion worth of investment will be needed by 2025 to revamp the coal industry and meet growing demand ... If coal problems persist or even worsen, Beijing could be forced to dramatically increase emphasis on nuclear and imported oil and gas ... China may surpass the U.S. in emissions of CO2 by 2020 ... they have announced plans to build 24-32 new nuclear plants by 2020 ... China is the second largest consumer of oil behind the U.S. ... 1/3 the oil is devoted to transportation ... Production of oil is likely to stay flat ... Chinese oil companies ... have made several acquisitions in Indonesia, Australia, Central Asia, Iran and Africa during the last few years ... passenger car purchases rose 75% in 2003 and another 20% in 2004 ... in several years transportation will likely account for nearly half of oil consumption ... Ultimately the U.S., China and Japan will be vying for the same Middle Eastern crude oil ... energy consumption ... is rising greater than 1% for every one percent increase in GDP, such an upward trend has potentially dramatic implications for energy consumption in the country. ... no other country in the world will have as great an impact on the world's energy industry than China. ... Given the importance of coal ... and dramatically increased use of passenger cars ... these two sectors need more focus and analysis by us".
Which is a more accurate assessment of China's energy picture, the Chinese or Dorian's? I am sure most of us side with Dorian. China is at least going through the motions of saying it plans to reduce its dependence on oil. Whether they can deliver on their plans is another thing. We accept the fact that we will have increasing oil imports while not doing enough to increase our domestic supplies of liquid fuels in the short term, while we (the US government) hide our heads in the sand saying the oil peak is not in the immediate future. All this just reinforces my opinion that China plays a big role in the future of energy and that The Energy Revolution has begun and it is not going to end soon.
I would like to thank you for the efforts you've made in writing this posting.
Posted by: NFL shop | June 04, 2011 at 03:03 AM