A new study, that appeared in the Energy Bulletin, does a very impressive job of combing the literature and developing a set of comprehensive parameters to determine the limits of possible timing of peak oil. Their case with 2.9 trillion barrels of oil reserves, 3% demand growth, peak occurring at 50% of reserves and 7.5% max production growth (within countries that have not reached peak) results in a peak in 2024 and the year in which global demand is unmet is 2016.
Whether this is the most likely case I do not know, but the input seems reasonable to me. These dates are much later than Campbell predicts and more in agreement with the EIA scenario. However the study is critical of the EIA methods. I would appreciate your comments on this.
Forecasting the Availability and Diversity of Global Convention Oil Supply (Summary)
An independent study has modeled various scenarios to project possible dates of global oil peak. The modelers used data from both the USGS and ASPO to reach their conclusion that 'the answer to the question, "how much longer can we increase oil production?", seems to be probably not much more than 30 years, and perhaps less than five.'
A summary can be found on the Energy Bulletin and the complete report (24 pages) at the authors website.
Comments