The Energy Blog

Study Develops More Accurate CO2 Data

Purdue University press release: - A new, high- resolution interactive map of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels has found that the emissions aren't all where we thought.

"For example, we've been attributing too many emissions to the northeastern United States, and it's looking like the southeastern U.S. is a much larger source than we had estimated previously.

"When you compare the old inventories to Vulcan, the new data show atmospheric CO2 differences that are as large as five parts per million in some U.S. regions in the late winter. The levels in the global atmosphere only rise one and a half part per million every year, so this is the equivalent of three years of global emissions in the atmosphere that isn't where we thought it was. This will be important for policy-makers and is enormous from a scientific point of view. It's shocking."

-- Kevin Gurney, Project leader and assistant professor of earth and atmospheric science at Purdue University.

The maps and system, called Vulcan, show CO2 emissions at more than 100 times more detail than was available before. Until now, data on carbon dioxide emissions were reported, in the best cases, monthly at the level of an entire state. The Vulcan model examines CO2 emissions at local levels on an hourly basis.

Climate Change Confirmed but Global Warming is Cancelled

I ran across an article, in The National Business Review (NZ), that (attempts to) explain why the climate is not highly sensitive to CO2 warming.

In December last year .  . . (the author) heard   . . . a paper . . . that showed while the IPCC models predict that greenhouse gases would produce an extensive "hot spot" in the upper troposphere over the tropics, the satellite measurements show no such hotspots have appeared.  . . .

a large part of this discrepancy is the result of some basic errors in the IPCC's assessment of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. When they applied their revised factor to the effect of greenhouse gases, the temperature rise was about a third of that predicted by the IPCC.  . . .

The findings that the predicted "tropical hot spots" do not exist are important because the IPCC models assume these hot spots will be formed by increased evaporation from warmer oceans leading to the accumulations of higher concentrations of water vapour in the upper atmosphere, and thereby generating a positive feedback reinforcing the small amount of warming that can be caused by CO2 alone.  . . .

Skeptics Speak Out on Global Warming

Aqua satellite data suggests there are reasons why we should be skeptical to the extent to which carbon dioxide drives warming, that CO2-driven increases in water vapor actually cool the earth, not magnify warming, and with equal interest the latest data from Argos float buoy data in the ocean could suggest the ocean is cooling since 2003 when they became operational.

In a report posted on Australia’s ABC National on March 17th entitled “Climate Change,” Jennifer Marohasy of the Australian Environment Foundation comments on data from the NASA Aqua satellite:

“The satellite was only launched in 2002 and it enabled the collection of data, not just on temperature but also on cloud formation and water vapour. What all the climate models suggest is that when you’ve got warming from additional carbon dioxide this will result in increased water vapour, so you’re going to get a positive feedback. That’s what the models have been indicating. What this great data from the NASA Aqua satellite…and the first time this data has been able to be collected is 2002 so we’ve got a little bit of data now, it’s actually showing just the opposite, that with a little bit of warming, weather processes are compensating, so they’re actually limiting the greenhouse effect and you’re actually getting a negative rather than a positive feedback.”

FYI: TransAlta and Alstom Develping CCS Facility in Alberta

TransAlta Corporation (NYSE: TAC) and Alstom (EPA: ALO) signed an agreement to work together to develop a large scale CO2 capture and storage (CCS) facility in Alberta, Canada.

The project will pilot Alstom’s proprietary Chilled Ammonia Process.  TransAlta considers the Chilled Ammonia Process as one of the more promising and potentially lowest cost solutions for CCS. TransAlta’s plan with Alstom is to test the technology at one of TransAlta’s coal-fired generating stations west of Edmonton and reduce current CO2 emissions by one million tons per year. . . . more

A similar article can be found on Bloomberg.com

Every CCS project that is built is a step foreword in controlling CO2 emissions and brings us a step closer to being able to require CCS on all coal fired power plants. Alberta already has regulation that require companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Bank of America to Assess Cost of Carbon on Loans to Utility Companies

The banking industry is taking an increasing interest in green energy and carbon emissions, in lieu of the Federal government not taking any action. Because of this failing, the Bank of America has decided to start assessing the cost of carbon in their risk and underwriting processes for loans to power companies, currently estimating the cost of carbon will fall between $20-$40 per ton of carbon dioxide, anticipating that either a carbon tax will be assessed in the future or that CCS will be required at some point. This follows the establishment of the Carbon Principles, which established guidelines for banks to use in considering the risk factors in making loans to power companies, as announced by a consortium of banks on Feb. 4.

This action effectively acts as a carbon tax and will raise the cost of electricity from power plants emitting carbon to a cost that will give renewable energy a fairer playing field.  This action could increase the spread between the cost of electricity made from nuclear power and coal power, considering that nuclear does not produce any carbon due to the operation of their plants. While I support Gen III+ nuclear (the next generation of nuclear plants), I also believe that the direct and indirect subsidies that the government gives nuclear plants should be eliminated (not much chance of this happening though), which would probably bring coal plants with CCS back into more favorable economics as compared to nuclear.

This action should help clear up the logjam that has been developing regarding construction of new coal fired plants. Because the procedures for approval of Gen III+ plants have not been ironed out, it will still take an extended period to get the first few of these on line. Also the nuclear industry has said that it will not build additional plants until the first 6-8 of these plants are in operation. Thus coal plants will probably start being built again in the not to distant future.  Wind power is near the point where their manufacturing capacity is significant and this should keep their growth rate growing strong.  Solar has many years (5-7) before their capacity could reasonably be expected to be significant and their costs reduced, so the immediate impact on them is nil -- still waiting for more silicon capacity and thin-film technologies to be more developed. However these factors have not kept solar from growing at a high pace.   

In a speech at the Feb. 12 North Carolina Issues Forum Ken Lewis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Bank of America made the following statements outlining his banks position on this subject: 

FYI: National Geographic Special on Global Warming

I thought this series might be of interest to some of my readers.

Can anyone stop global warming? Part of National Geographic’s mission is to inspire everyone to at least try, with a bevy of new content designed to educate, inspire and even alarm.

National Geographic’s “Six Degrees Could Change the World” premieres Sunday Feb. 10 on the National Geographic channel.

Based on the book Six Degrees by Mark Lyman, this series takes a blunt, eye-opening, degree-by-degree look at the natural disasters and climate change in store as the earth’s temperature rises up to an alarming six degrees over the coming century thanks to global warming.

National Geographic Digital Media and National Geographic Green Guide are supporting Six Degrees” with a wealth of related content available at www.thegreenguide.com and www.nationalgeographic.com/preserveourplanet for anyone who wants to make a difference and cut down on their personal contributions to global warming.

In an essay titled “Six Degrees,” Lyman highlights the changes he and his family members have implemented to reduce their carbon footprint. Lyman serves as guest editor at Green Guide this week, selecting articles for the site’s home page that reflect his interests, including information on wood-burning stoves, green power and local foods. The essay can be accessed at www.thegreenguide.com,

Leading Wall Street Banks Establish The Carbon Principles

Guidelines to strengthen environmental and economic risk management in the financing and construction of electricity generation.

Three of the world's leading financial institutions announced the formation of The Carbon Principles, climate change guidelines for advisors and lenders to power companies in the United States. The need for these Principles is driven by the risks faced by the power industry as utilities, independent producers, regulators, lenders and investors deal with the uncertainties around regional and national climate change policy.

The Principles were developed in partnership by Citi, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, and in consultation with leading power companies American Electric Power, CMS Energy, DTE Energy, NRG Energy, PSEG, Sempra and Southern Company. Environmental Defense and the Natural Resources Defense Council, environmental non-governmental organizations, also advised on the creation of the Principles.

Citi, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley have pledged their commitment to the Principles to use as a framework when talking about these issues with clients. This effort creates a consistent approach among major lenders and advisors in evaluating climate change risks and opportunities in the US electric power industry. The Principles and associated Enhanced Diligence represent a first step in a process aimed at providing banks and their power industry clients with a consistent roadmap for reducing the regulatory and financial risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions.

The Principles are:

Big Business Says Addressing Climate Change 'Rates Very Low on Agenda'

Poll of 500 major firms reveals that only one in 10 regard global warming as a priority

The Independent -- Global warming ranks far down the concerns of the world's biggest companies, despite world leaders' hopes that they will pioneer solutions to the impending climate crisis, a startling survey will reveal this week.

Nearly nine in 10 of them do not rate it as a priority, says the study, which canvassed more than 500 big businesses in Britain, the US, Germany, Japan, India and China. Nearly twice as many see climate change as imposing costs on their business as those who believe it presents an opportunity to make money. And the report's publishers believe that big business will concentrate even less on climate change as the world economy deteriorates. . . . more

Maybe this should not be surprising, as the motive for profit is basic to big business.  This survey seems to say that all the publicity garnered about climate change has little effect on big business. This confirms that voluntary measures are largely unsuccessful, few want to take a position that might cause them to lose a competitive advantage.  The conclusion to me is that governments must impose some limitations on discharges that lead to global warming and they must be done in harmony throughout the world, which is the opposite of President Bush's policy.

Ice Loss in Antartica Nearly Matches That of Greenland

Via Biopact -- Ice loss in Antarctica increased by 75 percent in the last 10 years due to a speed-up in the flow of its glaciers and is now nearly as great as that observed in Greenland, according to a new, comprehensive study by UC Irvine and NASA scientists.

. . .  the losses, which were primarily concentrated in West Antarctica’s Pine Island Bay sector and the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, are caused by ongoing and past acceleration of glaciers into the sea. This is mostly a result of warmer ocean waters, which bathe the buttressing floating sections of glaciers, causing them to thin or collapse.

. . .  the increased contribution of Antarctica to global sea level rise indicated by the study warrants closer monitoring.  . . . more

Shell CEO Presents Two Scenarios For the Future of Energy

The chief executive of Shell has posted this article on Shell's new energy scenarios. I was made aware of it by The Oil Drum, who first posted it at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3548 and I thought it was worth repeating for your comments. They had a large number, 153, of mostly very insightful comments at the time of this posting. 

The article supports the peak oil theory, as I envision it. They defined it as the time that easy accessible oil will no longer be able to keep up with demand, their estimate being 2015.  I interpret that as meaning that heavy oil, as in the tar sands of Canada and the heavy oil in Venezuela, and oil shale are not significant sources of oil by 2015 and that their addition will cause significant increases in the price of oil which will have an effect on demand. The exact date is not that important, but it is meaningful that they predict a relatively near date, within the next 10 years.

They also predict that A growing number of cars are powered by electricity and hydrogen.  I think they underemphasize this important factor in reducing our consumption of oil, and believe that hydrogen will not play that important a role. I think a very aggressive development of PHEVs, EVs and biofuels combined with North Americas' (USA, Mexico and Canada) remaining reserves of oil should be able to supply all our needs to power our vehicles and have some expensive oil left over to export to other countries before 2100, hopefully by 2050.

The statements that more nuclear power will be required and that carbon capture and sequesteration (CCS) must be required on coal powered power plants in all developed countries are right in line with my thinking.  In the interim period, until renewable power can replace all aging nuclear and coal powered plants, these power sources will be required, no matter how much power is saved by increased efficiency in the home and in industry. From the economic point of view nuclear power has the clear advantage over coal when CCS is required on coal plants. However there is opposition to nuclear in some quarters and will be as long as the threats of proliferation and problems with waste disposal remain issues.  To me the ideal situation would be thorium fueled plants with fuel recycling.  However it will be a very long time before there is any consensus on that.

The complete text of the article, as appears on the Shell website, is given below. The bold facing is mine.

Two Energy Futures

* By Jeroen van der Veer

By 2100, the world’s energy system will be radically different from today’s. Renewable energy like solar, wind, hydroelectricity, and biofuels will make up a large share of the energy mix, and nuclear energy, too, will have a place. Humans will have found ways of dealing with air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies will have reduced the amount of energy needed to power buildings and vehicles.