The Energy Blog

A Solar Grand Plan

The January 2008 issue of Scientific American has an article titled "A Solar Grand Slam" which outlines a plan in which solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In a massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to solar power plants, the U.S. could supply 69 percent of its electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050. The four key elements of the plan are:

• A vast area of photovoltaic cells would have to be erected in the Southwest. Excess daytime energy would be stored as compressed air in underground caverns to be tapped during nighttime hours.
• Large solar concentrator power plants, with molten salt storage, would be built as well.
• A new direct-current power transmission backbone would deliver solar electricity across the country.
• $420 billion in subsidies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive.

The article goes into quite a bit of detail about how the plan would be implemented and financed.

The plan also states that "If wind, biomass and geothermal sources were also developed, renewable energy could provide 100 percent of the nation’s electricity and 90 percent of its energy by 2100."

This comprehensive study is well done and well worth a read.  I disagree on their definition of what is a vast area of photovoltaic cells, which I find reasonable, especially as their estimate of the land required is very conservative compared to other studies.

I also do not see why so much power has to be provided by solar, as other, just as clean sources, could contribute considerable power, especially in the short run.

Unfortunately their study ended before two recent announcements:

1) That Nanosolar producer of thin-film CIGS solar cells, made using nanoparticle ink and roll-printing technology, has begun production of cells that will sell at $0.99 a Watt when their 430. ,000 Mw production facility in CA and a similar facility in Germany are completed. Costs are reduced because, not only by their production technology, but also because their cells and panels are the first ones to have been designed specifically for utility-scale power generation.

and 2) That Ausra which is providing a 177 Mw thermal solar facility for PG&E has begun construction on a 700 Mw production facility which is scheduled to start delivering equipment in April 2008. Ausra claims that It can generate electricity for 10 cents/kWh now and under 8 cents/kWh in 3 yrs (presumably not including storage, which would add another 2 or 3 cents). They claim that all U.S. electric power, day and night, can be generated using a land area smaller than 8,500 sq miles using their equipment.

FYI: Solar Cell Production Jumps 50 Percent in 2007

According to The Earth Policy Institute production of photovoltaics (PV) jumped to 3,800 megawatts worldwide in 2007, up an estimated 50 percent over 2006. At the end of the year, according to preliminary data, cumulative global production stood at 12,400 megawatts, enough to power 2.4 million U.S. homes. Growing by an impressive average of 48 percent each year since 2002, PV production has been doubling every two years, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy source.

A key force driving the advancement of thin-film technologies is a polysilicon shortage that began in April 2004. In 2006, for the first time, more than half of polysilicon production went into PVs instead of computer chips. While thin films are not as efficient at converting sunlight to electricity, they currently cost less and their physical flexibility makes them more versatile than traditional solar cells. Led by the United States, thin film grew from 4 percent of the market in 2003 to 7 percent in 2006. Polysilicon supply is expected to match demand by 2010, but not before thin film grabs 20 percent of the market.

FYI: Washington Wave Power Project Gets FERC Approval

The first approved wave-power program in the United States has been given a green light for a pilot project in Makah Bay, a remote section of the Pacific Ocean just off of the northwestern tip of the Olympic Peninsula.

Finavera's (TSX: FVR.V ) (previous post) Makah Bay pilot plant will begin with four 250-kilowatt buoys anchored in an array 1.9 miles offshore. Electricity will be transmitted onshore using nearly four miles of underwater cable that eventually connects to a station on land that feeds into the Clallam County Public Utility District's power transmission grid.  . . . more

According to the Seattle Post Intelligence, the Electric Power Research Institute estimates that waves off the Washington, Oregon and California coasts could produce from 250 to 500 terawatt-hours per year. A terawatt-hour is a million megawatt-hours, or a billion kilowatt-hours. The nation uses about 4,000 terawatt-hours of electricity every year.  . . . more

In separate news item PG&E and Finavera Renewables announced the nation’s first commercial wave energy power purchase agreement for two megawatt (MW) of commercial wave energy. Located off the Northern California coast, the Humboldt County Offshore Wave Energy Power Plant will be developed by Finavera Renewables. The project is expected to begin delivering renewable, clean electricity in 2012.

FYI: Benefits of Combined Heat and Power in Corn Ethanol Plants

To date, CHP and ethanol industry stakeholders have recognized that the efficiencies of CHP could further improve energy use patterns of dry mill ethanol plants, but the levels of impact have been unclear.

This paper by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Combined Heat and Power Partnership summarizes an analysis of state-of-the-art natural gas-, coal-, and biomass-fueled dry mill ethanol plants—comparing energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the ethanol production process with and without CHP systems.  . . .

The analysis shows that the use of CHP can result in reductions in total energy use of almost 55 percent over state-of-the-art dry mill ethanol plants that purchase central station power rather than use CHP. With certain CHP configurations, CO2 emission reductions from using CHP to displace central station power even exceed the CO2 emissions from the CHP system and ethanol plant, resulting in negative net CO2 emissions for the plant compared with base case conditions. . . . more

I had thought that plants employing CHP were more common than indicated in this report.  . . . No wonder power consumption is such a big concern.  Of course lower power comes at the price of higher capital costs, but after all these plants are part of the energy industry that should be aware of these costs.  And when are these plants going to start using part of their product to generate their power requirements?  Get with the program!

Nanosolar Ships First Panels

In one of the most significant announcements in renewable energy for the year Nanosolar, producer of CIGS solar cells made using nanoparticle ink and roll-printing technology, announced that it has shipped its first product and received their first check from product revenue. They are already sold out for the next 12 months and are working to scale their production capacity as fast as possible. The advent of low cost thin film cells, that according to Nanosolar will be able to be produced sold for $0.99 per Watt, should mean that low cost solar can be produced at the lowest cost ever and can be produced at sites that are more distributed than from thermal solar. When this cost is achieved, it will mean that solar is competitive with all other forms of power production and only geographical limitations -- lack of sun -- will limit its proliferation -- and of course the problem of storage of energy.  This moves the development of energy storage technologies to the top of the list of priorities for renerwable energy technologies, where it should have been for some time. It has 647,000 sq ft of manufacturing capability in the U.S. and Germany. 430. ,000 Mw of capacity per year in CA according to this CNBC video. Could this be the begining of the end of all other forms of solar power.

In the December 18 Nanosolar Blog Martin Roscheisen, CEO of Nanosolar writes:

Our product is defining in more ways I can enumerate here but includes:

- the world’s first printed thin-film solar cell in a commercial panel product;

- the world’s first thin-film solar cell with a low-cost back-contact capability;

- the world’s lowest-cost solar panel – which we believe will make us the first solar manufacturer capable of profitably selling solar panels at as little as $.99/Watt;

- the world’s highest-current thin-film solar panel – delivering five times the current of any other thin-film panel on the market today and thus simplifying system deployment;

- an intensely systems-optimized product with the lowest balance-of-system cost of any thin-film panel – due to innovations in design we have included.

Today we are announcing that we have begun shipping panels for freefield deployment in Eastern Germany and that the first Megawatt of our panels will go into a power plant installation there.

Power Innovations Energy Efficient Power Supplies

Did you realize that about 10% of household energy consumption is wasted in the standby mode of devices in your home, costing over $5 billion annually in the U.S?  The Lawrence Berkeley National Lab estimates that a 75% reduction is possible in new equipment by replacing inefficient linear power supplies with smarter switch-mode power supplies, such as those made by Power Integrations.

Balu Balakrishnan, CEO of Power Integrations, Inc., (NASDAQ:POWI) appeared on CNBC's Street Signs, see video, today, marking the 10th anniversary of the companies founding.  Their energy efficient power supply components are one of the items that receive little publicity, yet contribute significantly to the reduction of our power usage. Their integrated circuits with EcoSmart(r) technology are used in power supplies, which convert high-voltage AC power from a wall outlet into the low-voltage DC power needed by most electronic products.

Up to 90% of standby power is wasted energy consumed by inefficient power supply designs and unnecessarily energized components.  The Lawrence Berkeley National Lab estimates that a 75% reduction is possible in new equipment and that nearly all standby functions can be performed with a total appliance standby power of one watt or less.  This can be achieved by using improved power supply technologies and designs, namely, by replacing inefficient linear power supplies with smarter switch-mode power supplies.

1052 Daimler Orion VII Hybrid Buses Ordered

Daimler Buses North America has announced that it received orders totaling 1,052 for Orion VII Next Generation diesel-electric hybrid transit buses, 850 for the MTA New York City Transit, and 202 for the City of Ottawa’s OC Transpo, for delivery into 2010.

This order will bring the MTA's diesel-electric hybrid bus fleet to almost 1,700 units, making it the largest diesel-electric hybrid fleet in the world, accounting for almost 50 percent of MTA's entire fleet.

With already 1,100 diesel-electric hybrid transit buses on the road, 460 pending deliveries and these new orders, Orion has received over 2,600 orders since the launch of the Orion hybrid bus in 2003.

The Orion VII transit buses are powered by BAE Systems' HybriDrive(R) propulsion system. The series power train consists of the following:

• A 6-cylinder, 6-liter, 194 kW (260 hp) Cummins diesel, running at nearly constant speed.
• A 120 kW generator producing electric power for the batteries.
• A single 186 kW (250 hp) electric motor drives the vehicle and regenerates energy during braking. 
• A 32 kWh A123 lithium-ion battery pack, in the majority of buses, supply power during acceleration and hill climbing as well as storing energy from regenerative braking.

Wind Power as a Baseload for Electric Power

A study conducted by Stanford University confirmed that interconnected multiple wind farms can be used to provide baseload electric power. Interconnecting wind farms with a transmission grid reduces the power swings caused by wind variability and makes a significant portion of it just as consistent a power source as a coal power plant.

"This study implies that, if interconnected wind is used on a large scale, a third or more of its energy can be used for reliable electric power, and the remaining intermittent portion can be used for transportation, allowing wind to solve energy, climate and air pollution problems simultaneously," said Archer, the study's lead author and a consulting assistant professor in Stanford's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

This is an advantage that wind and wave power have over solar power (without storage) unless the geographical diversity of the solar power is so great that there are significant differences in the period of sunlight, which would make the cost of transmission too great using current transmission techniques. High-voltage direct current (HVDC) or high temperature cryogenic transmission could alter this picture. The European super grid described in a previous post depended on both the diversity of wind farms and advanced transmission techniques, but such a large geographical diversity is not required. A previous post reported on an earlier study that came to even more favorable results using a mix of all the renewable technologies. The study found that by combining a diversity of geographical locations and a diversity of technologies, "renewables combined with domestic combined heat and power could ultimately make the following contributions to Britain's total energy supply: wind 35%, wave and tidal 15%, combined heat and power 15%, and solar 5-10%." 

An energy storage system, using compressed air storage, here and here, makes wind power dispatchable, but is dependent on suitable geological conditions to store the energy. A vanadium redox battery energy storage system, that stores both solar and wind power as electricity, and thus is not dependent on location, is being planned for an Irish wind farm.

This combined with fact that wind power is less expensive than conventional power in some locations and that solar thermal power should reach that point within a few years, makes utility scale renewable power very possible within a few years and the phasing out of fossil fueled power and energy security realistic goals. Perhaps five years after that PV solar should be competitive opening up another technology for very wide spread use. The limitation at that point will be the production capacity of manufacturers of renewable energy equipment and shortages of some natural resources, such as silicon and vanadium, needed to make the equipment. Alternatives such as non-silicon solar will then be called on to meet the demand. First Solar is already a successful commercial producer of non-silicon solar cells. Market forces will then drive the production capacity without any need for subsidies.  In the meantime subsidies may be justified to keep the industries competitive.

Ausra Building First U.S. Production Facility for Thermal Solar

Ausra Inc., a developer of utility-scale solar thermal power, announced Friday it is building the first U.S. manufacturing plant for solar thermal power systems, in Las Vegas. The 130,000-square-foot, highly automated manufacturing and distribution center will produce the reflectors, towers, absorber tubes, and other key components of the company’s solar thermal power plants.

“Ausra can fill four square miles with solar collectors every year from this one factory, enough to provide market-priced zero-pollution power to 500,000 homes,"

Bob Fishman, president and CEO of Ausra.

In November 2007, Ausra and California utility PG&E announced a power purchase agreement for a one-square-mile, 177-megawatt power plant, enough to power over 120,000 homes, to be built in central California

The production plant will begin regular operation in April 2008. Ausra’s new Las Vegas facility will manufacture the solar field equipment for the PG&E project and for other power projects throughout the American Southwest. The factory, the first of its kind in the U.S., will be capable of making over 700 megawatts (electric) of solar collectors per year.

Lithium Energy Japan Established to Produce Lithium-ion Batteries

GS Yuasa Corporation (TSE: 6674), Mitsubishi Corporation (TSE: 8058), and Mitsubishi Motors Corporation (TSE: 7211) announced that, effective December 12, they have formed the joint venture company "Lithium Energy Japan" to produce large capacity and high performance lithium-ion batteries. The companies have been in collaboration since last May to set up this joint venture company.

GS Yuasa possesses advanced technologies in large lithium-ion batteries and is striving to broaden their applications. Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Corporation intends to enter the battery manufacturing business and aims to create other related businesses as well. Finally, Mitsubishi Motors Corporation is working to promote greater use of electric vehicles, which is the ultimate in environmentally-friendly automobiles. Through their mutual interests, the three companies have come together to invest in this new joint venture. Their intent is to apply their comprehensive strengths in vertical value chains and take advantage of their powerful synergy to advance this business.