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March 09, 2007

Comments

Bill Hannahan

It still sounds too good to be true.

If Altairnano has accomplished what they claim, their best course would be to provide a battery to the most reputable independent testing lab in the country and ask them to measure the performance characteristics and publish the results.

If independent testing confirms their claims, they will be buried in billions of dollars of investment money. This will allow them to build very large scale production facilities to satisfy the needs of major manufacturers in the shortest possible time, providing maximum benefit to the human race and the environment, while providing maximum accumulation of well deserved wealth for the owners of the company.

I see no downside that comes close to counterbalancing these advantages. Their failure to provide independent test data makes me very skeptical.

Ender

Bill - "Their failure to provide independent test data makes me very skeptical."

Their battery is in the Phoenix SUT so it looks like it is being tested - time will tell.

Ewout

210 kW/h is technically speaking an accelleration (J/s^2), what they intended to say was that is consumes 210kW during those 10 minutes (the content of a battery pack is 35kWh, charging it in 10 minutes, yields in a flux of 35 * 6 = 210kW)

If I understand correctly, the Phoenix SUTs are already driving around, making this reality, so there's not really a "too good to be true"...
I too am eager to see independent tests though!

Andrei Belyakov Moscow Russia

Unfortunately the Altairnano tells nothing about the prospects for its product cost. Now it seems to be rather expensive. What about future?

amazingdrx

ALTI earnings coming soon I believe?


How
low
will it go? Back under 3 bucks?


Low energy density is the problem with this battery. And the quick charge option will be hard to use, not many charging stations.

It's like having a 3 meg internet hookup and the fastest download one can fine is less than 1 meg.

This is the reason that serial plugin hybrid is the better transition until battery technology improves even more. A serial plugin hybrid can charge quickly enough from many conventional sources (rather than special high amperage electric "gas" stations)because it has a much smaller battery. It only needs a 25 mile range to cover the average trip without gas.

In fact a slower charging, much cheaper lead acid foam battery would be fine for this design. Overnight charging would be ok, it wouldn't hurt the utility of the vehicle.

Charged up or not you can get in and hit the "gas", as long as the generator has enough liquid fuel. Filling up is the normal process at a gas station with the serial plugin hybrid. Except it will average over 200 mpg.

Kind of ironic that GM has announced the first mass produced serial plugin hybrid by a major automaker. The VOLT in 2010.

Maybe they decided to leapfrog Toyota and Honda as I have suggested for a year or so now? Are they reading this blog? Hehehey.

amazingdrx

Insider manipulation by stock tout firm?

This could crash the price after earnings, nice opportunity maybe?

Jimmi

Motley Fool has been after Altair since as long as I can remember. They keep saying Altair has been known for press release manipulations since way back when. They also say that since Gotcher took the reigns, Altair shows promise if they can deliver this battery. It seems with all the new deals coming through, Gotcher so far has delivered with orders and new investment dollars (which may not be needed after this year). From an article in BuisnessWeek Online, "John Roy of WR Hambrecht, who rates the stock, now at $3.42, a buy, says 2007 orders from Phoenix alone could run up to $42 million. He upped his 2007 estimate from a loss on sales of $18.8 million to a profit of 8 cents a share on $32.9 million."

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_11/b4025106.htm

For every con I can produce a pro. It's just who you decide to believe. I told you before DocX that the year end report will show a loss and there might be a correction... ta dah!!! Funny how you say ALTI might go below $3.00 again. If you recall there are about 1 million warrants of ALTI that gives the owner of the warrant the purchase right of 1 share at a price of $2.70. Those warrant options expire in Dec 2007. Not sure how the market will react when this will happen but if it happens it should happen real soon. Read another article (I'll try to get a link) but it stated that there were 200 confirmed orders. If I can confirm that, than that will put them real close to half of their max estimate all within the first quarter of 2007. Putting a lil weight to John Roy's words.

Let's not forget that Phoenix is going after fleet vehicles. The market that has plenty to gain on recapturing costs over time.

I hope Altair drops below $3 again... I'll buy more. I should of sold my entire $2.65 position when it hit $4. Oh well... I'll get it next time. Until the ZEV credits expire in 2010, I have no problem putting some money into them. If I only had some addition funds in my ROTH IRA account I would play the volitility of ALTI. You can basically play the peaks and valleys on every single press release and make a killing (% wise).

If you're looking to jump in DocX... use either the $2.70 base (the institutional investment a lil while back) or $3.35 base(the AES investment). Normally I'd use the $3.35 base since a reputable company bought 1.5% of ALTI but with the warrants still out... it makes me hesitant to sell my $2.65 positions just yet. In retrospec... I should have sold at $4... made my 50%... called short at $4 and covered at $3.5 for another 12%. 60% or so in 3 months would have been nice =)

amazingdrx

Yep, trade 'em don't marry them. That's my idea too Jimmi.

Sell into the inevitable earnings expectation rise as people climb on board. Buy on bad news disseminated between earnings reports.

Will GM really use the A123 battery in the Volt? We'll see.

We should be looking at huge trading volume in the winners in these new technologies in the next few years. I'm thinking the late 00s will mimic the late 90s. That would be great fun! And might just save the planet and the uS economy.

I sure had fun in the late 90s trading the tech bubblers. Remember when cisco had the largest market cap in the world? Hehehey.

Jimmi

LOL... don't marry em... that's what a buddy keeps telling me. The volitility of ALTI is perfect with the price. Huge percentage swings is what I'm looking for. I just wish ALTI was above $4 so I can margin on the up swing. Hopefully it will be soon. I'd like to think that Warren Buffett's advice as to being an owner of the company and sticking through the good and bad times is a valid tactic. Having my position at $2.65 makes me want to hold on for dear life. Hard to let go of the fact that for every $2.65 upswing I make 100% of my initial investment. It's good that I didn't sell... I'd hate to wait for every $3.35. I guess I need to get more cash in my ROTH IRA MARGIN account so I can play the volitility without the burden of taxes. Compounding without taxes is oh so dreamy. Until the ZEV credits expire... there will be alot of money to be made if ALTI can hold true.

I hope A123 goes public. Competition is a good thing... just as long as China doesn't get too invloved which they will but A123 and ALTI both have agreements with battery manufacturers. GM could really use a silver bullet to save what they have left... nano li-ion batteries from either company will do the trick. Or maybe the cheaper ABAT PLI battery will do the trick... at $3,333 a piece... GM can't go wrong.

Jimmi

BTW... free stock tip. Look at VHI and their "special dividend". For every share of VHI owned on the record date of March 12...you'll recieve .48 shares of Titanium Metals payable on March 26. Utilize a margin play to double your buying power and recieve double the dividend. Even if VHI drops to $20 a share after the record date... (VHI @ $30 atm) with the special dividend of .48 a share of TIE (TIE @ $35 atm) you'll still make about 40% in a few days of trading. Mon. the 12th is the last day to get in. Work out the numbers and you should see what I see.

Just want to share some good info with you guys since all of you have educated me tons on what I feel will be the one bull market that will resonate for generations to come... the alt energy bull market!!!

Beek

Jimmi, can you post a followup on 3/26 for VHI so we can check your veracity? Sounds too good to be true.

Jimmi

Will do Beek. Actually I'll post numbers on VHI tomorrow since today is the record date. The 26th is just when you actually get paid the dividend, you don't have to hold the stock till the 26th. I'll post a follow up of TIE on the 26th. If you get into this play... you can sell your VHI stock tomorrow the 13th (just be aware of the tax implecations, if you don't know what they are... read the VHI 2/28 press release and an accountant). Today they will announce the actual ratio of the dividend.

I know it sounds to good to be true. When the news was announced on 2/28 the stock went from $22 to $33 than settled at $30. I'm not the only one that read the release.

Jimmi

BTW... for those of you not familiar with trading and the possibilities involving a margin play... I do not recommend this tactic. I don't want people to "bet the farm" and lose money from something I mentioned =)

But if you do your homework... and you know how to margin (more importantly... when to pull out or sell VHI)... just wanna let you know the 40% is kinda my low ball figure. Worse case scenerio is making 25%... best case scenerio is 100%+ (doubt it will happen but a man can dream can't he =).

Jimmi

REVISON: you have to hold until the payment date!!! Sorry for the confusion... the statement says you "may" be selling the right to the special dividend. So you can't sell until the 26th to be sure of getting the goods.

amazingdrx

I think trading the same trends that worked in the 90s boom will work in this energy boom Jimmi.

Once the war is over and the only way to recover financially will be to reduce oil use. And the way to do that will be renewable energy and conservation.

Halliburton is spinning off KBR to limit Iraq war thieving liability. And moving to Dubai to protect from the government demanding the cash back. The biggest corpoRAT is fleeing the s(t)inking ship of state.

Almost time to fund the trading account! ALTI is a good one to watch and get a few 100 shares to get into trading mode, but the rush will be awhile down the road.

It's a thrill to wake up at 5 and check the market when the bull roars. But it will be much better this time around when the stocks you trade are saving the planet too.

Jimmi

The tech bubble will pale in comparison to this impending energy boom. And I think the ALTI rush will happen sooner than you think. If ALTI gets 500 orders this year, you're looking at the year that ALTI will actually make some money after a decade or so of losing money. ALTI lost like 22 mil this year... and if John Roy's estimates come true for 2007... than instead of a loss... you're looking at .08 a share with close to 60 million shares out. That may not seem much but it's the turning point ALTI has been waiting for. And that's just for 500 orders. Next year they hope for 6000 units... that'll be roughly .96 a share... 2009 is 20000 units... that'll be roughly 3.20 a share (please don't down my simple math... I really don't feel like writing a full earnings estimate =). Now that's what I call earnings growth and that's just with Phoenix. Let's not forget Alcoa and the hybrid truck battery, Eli Lilly and Renosorb, their Western Sands deal, their pigment process unit, and their air filtration segment just to name a few other avenues of possible revenue. Like I said... if ALTI holds true... than there will be some cash to be made... but you may need to get in pretty soon DocX. You are racing against that one press release stating the 500 orders have been filled. The 200 order mark has been achieved in just the 1st quarter, here's the link...

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070309/0224929.html

Not sure of the validity of the 200 number but if it's true... than you need to invest before the 3rd quarter and hope that the remaining 300 order doesn't come tomorrow.

Some other areas of intrest, as far as investing green, the solar sector is really booming. Evergreen Solar ESLR and First Solar FSLR have been making some big moves in the last few years. Both companies are ramping up production with new manufacturing facilities. I tend to favor ESLR since it seems to me that they have a higher cell efficiency at a lower costs with their String Ribbon technology. And with their agreement with Germany, EverQ (a joint venture with Q-Cells and Renewable Energy Corporation), well this is a clip from one of their press releases...

---------------------
German Regulatory Authorities Approve EverQ Partnership Agreements
Evergreen Solar, Q-Cells and REC Become Equal Partners in EverQ

MARLBORO, Mass.; THALHEIM, SAXONY-ANHALT, Germany & HOVIK, Norway--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 21, 2006--Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR), Q-Cells AG (FSE: QCE) and Renewable Energy Corporation ASA (OSEAX: REC.OL) (REC) today announced that regulatory authorities in Germany have approved previously announced partnership agreements that make the companies equal partners in EverQ, which manufactures solar modules in Thalheim, Germany. Effective December 19, 2006, all three partners will share equally in the net income generated by EverQ.

The EverQ partnership and related polysilicon supply agreements are intended to facilitate the next phase of expansion of EverQ's production facilities in Thalheim. The partnership intends to grow the EverQ business to approximately 10 times the size of its first facility, generating 300MW of solar production by 2010. In the third quarter of 2006, EverQ's first factory ramped to full production capacity of 30MW. EverQ's second factory - EverQ-2 - is on track to begin production in the second quarter of 2007, and is expected to reach its full capacity of 60MW by the end of 2007 bringing EverQ's total capacity to approximately 90MW.
-------------------

ESLR will have comparable production capabilities with FSLR, but with a better product. I'm keeping my eye on them... I just need to know more about solar technology in general before I stroke a check.

amazingdrx

The sooner the better Jimmi, bring on the bull!

The correction underway now is sorely needed. The market is telling US we need to get back to business and forget trying to be the world's oil cop.

Excellent!

Sky King

Hey, how about you guys continue this conversation over on the Merrill Lynch Forum so we can get back to talking about batteries ;>)

Jimmi

Sorry about that Sky... with the exception of a blurb from me about VHI and ESLR... we have been talking about ALTI =) But I feel your pain and will stop side tracking. You know this post is entitled "ALTAIR RECEIVES MORE FUNDING" so talking about Altair's financial future would be well within context. Sorry about the other stock stuff though.

G'day

amazingdrx

You might want to follow along Sky. when that big bull roars you will be sorry if you are left behind.

Technology and commerce are inseparable in practice. And we need a lot of practice to turn this energy policy mess around. Enthusiam is key.

Political enthusiasm won't get this job done, actual good old fashioned capitalist profit motive enthusiasm will. When market enthusiam gets going like it did behind Google in the last few years and before that MSFT and Cisco, then every sector of the society gets involved.

Media will no longer overlook battery, solar, wind, and electric car companies. Consumers will drive the boom.

Jimmi

Beek...

I know I promised you an update after the 26th but I feel a need to give a lil update before that date since I "gave out a stock tip". I want to ensure that if anyone followed my advice from my post... I'd like to go over some risks involved, different types of plays, and some projected numbers.

First off you need to contact you broker to ensure that you have the correct RECORD DATE. Usually brokers have a 3 day settlement period before a stock goes on record. So be sure your record date corresponds with the special dividend dates provided. If not... sell fast before the upcoming dip.

Second, with regards to your settlement period and please contact your broker for the period that is applicable to you, you'll need to sell your position so you are on record on the PAYMENT DATE.

OK, with that aside let's look at some plays and combination of plays. The obvious is to buy in so you can recieve the dividend, than sell. This is probally the most common play being utilized for this special dividend. With that in mind and the fact that special dividends will have an initial spike in the stock price as people by into the dividend and a sharp fall as people sell their positions, one can see the line of gain/price according to the price you buy in at and the price you sell at. For this example let's use the hypothetical number of $1000 invested, I got in at my first position at $28.15 where you margin an additional $1000... doubling your buying power and double the amount of shares you buy. So a $2000 margined position will purchase about 70 shares. Let's say for instance that the price after the payment date drops down to $20 (I estimate the price will drop between the range of $17-$22 or lower and it's best to sell ASAP, the higher you sell at the higher your % of gains will be) and you sell your position. That'll make your position worth $1400. After paying off the margin loan of $1000, you'll be left with $400 (remember you have a capital loss and can deduct this off your tax returns). Now you have $400 and 33.432 shares of TIE (the exact ratio was posted as .4776). TIE is trading currently at about $34.50. The fractional share will be given as cash so you'll have $414.90 and 33 shares of TIE (if the price of TIE is $34.50 on the payment date). You sell the 33 shares of TIE @ $34.50 and get $1138.50. Your initial investment is $1000 and it is now $1553.40... that's a 55.34% gain.

If you have mulitple trading accounts, hopefully a regular trading account and a ROTH IRA trading account, you'll be able to make even more money with multiple positions on VHI. With the addition of the previous play, you can also play the upcoming dip. Let's say for instance you have $1000 available in your ROTH IRA account. I margined called short on my second position @ $29.88 (calling short is basically betting the price goes down... for further explaination please contact your broker). Let's use the hypothetical number of $1000 again. You margin another $1000 for a buying power of $2000 and call short -66 shares @ $29.88. Using the example above... let's say the price of VHI is now $20 and you "buy to cover" your short call. You'll buy back the shares you borrowed at a price of $1320 thus making a gain of $680. The initial investment of $1000 is now $1680... a 68% gain. This play I would wait a lil longer and maybe buy back at $17 or lower 3-10 days after the payment date. At $17 you would buy back the shares for $1122 thus making a gain of $878... that's 87.8%.

So regarding the multiple play...

Dividend play initial investment: $1000
Total after play: $1553.40

Call short play initial investment: $1000
Total after play (buy back @ $17): $1878

Total invested: $2000
Total after all plays: $3431.40
% gain: 71.57

Numbers will vary depending on the final prices but I think you get the picture. The price of buying in at $28.15 and calling short at $29.88 are my actual numbers. I just ommited my investment amounts. If you feel funny about margining... than don't. It's something I don't suggest unless you're willing to lose alot more than what you invested. Good luck all and happy investing. Hopefully I'll be able to buy some more long term alternative plays with my gains.

On a side note... I wouldn't sell the TIE shares instantly. I plan on keeping them for a few years. The way I was looking at this play is...

1) Get discounted shares of TIE
2) Take a tax deduction on my capital loss
3) Play the dip in my ROTH IRA account to secure tax free gains

Cheers!!!

air jordan 1

I can not believe that your opinions on this topic are so close to mine. Thank you for sharing it which make me more confidence on my stand.

used car loans

Altairnano should push for greener technology now that they've received additional funds.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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