Welcome to the Energy Blog


  • The Energy Blog is where all topics relating to The Energy Revolution are presented. Increasingly, expensive oil, coal and global warming are causing an energy revolution by requiring fossil fuels to be supplemented by alternative energy sources and by requiring changes in lifestyle. Please contact me with your comments and questions. Further Information about me can be found HERE.

    Jim


  • SUBSCRIBE TO THE ENERGY BLOG BY EMAIL

After Gutenberg

Clean Break

The Oil Drum

Statistics

Blog powered by Typepad

« Bush's Energy Reduction Executive Order Includes Provisions Requiring Purchase of Plug-in Vehicles | Main | New Report Finds Huge Power Potential in Geothermal Resources »

January 25, 2007

Comments

Engineer-Poet

As I keep saying, this is the end of:

  • OPEC
  • The US oil-company hegemony
  • International politics as we know it

.... if this is for real.  (And I just realized that it'll probably take down Vlad's dreams of empire too.)

If not, it'll be a few more years until we get cheaper Li-ion or high-performance Pb-H2SO4 (Firefly Energy) to market.

kert

the company's system claims a specific energy of about 280 watt hours per kilogram, compared with around 120 watt hours per kilogram for lithium-ion
Er .. ElectroVaya just announced 330Wh/kg and 220 is already available.
NanoSafe is claiming recharge cycle lifes of 10000+ cycles, and high-C charge/discharge ( so does A123 and is already verified on market )
Why would the EEStor be a silver bullet anymore?

All of the claims are so far unproven, and the $/kwh arent known for any of them. Unless EEStor comes out with significantly cheaper product, they dont have a winner because supplying power from ultracaps is more difficult than from batteries due to very high voltages involved.

Greg Woulf

If EESTOR's claims are right they crush A123 for price and cycle life. A123 already has the technology down, but the cost is too high to spread across the country. I'm not sure how much of that price is greed and how much is cost, but either way right now it's too expensive.

Electrovaya is an unknown to me. I don't know their cycle life, I don't know their cost and I don't know their safety. I hope they're the key, or EESTOR, or A123 or anyone. I don't have a favorite, I just want one of them to step up.

Nanosafe has the cycle life, and their cost is slightly better, but because their energy density is half of regular lith-ion you need twice as much and the cost is high. I think right now Nanosafe is THE battery to beat. I think they have the best combo running, if not in production.

If EESTOR's claims for performance and price come true we could put enough battery in the car for 1,200 mile range for the price of what's already available to purchase.

I doubt the final product will meet those claims, but if they do they shatter every other choice so far.

politicaobscura

<>

This is crazy talk. Profit is part of price, the return on risk capital is part of price. Efforts to separate them out leads to silliness.

Greg Woulf

Politicaobscura,

I never mentioned a word about anyone forgoing profit, or said that anyone shouldn't get a good return on risk capital.

What you're saying has a flaw in it as well as sounding like an insult. The price of any item is set by the market without consideration to profit or start up costs.

If I can buy a battery pack for $500 that's equal to one for $1,000, I'm not going to say, "well, the $1,000 pack had more start up costs."

A123 packs, right now are too expensive to bundle into a car and run. They might be skimming large profits right now from the easy market of tools, and later produce cheap packs for BEV's, I don't know.

That has to do with how much it costs A123 to produce a pack large enough for a car. They might not be able to produce a pack at a low enough cost to sell.

Not understanding that seems to me to be the silly point of view.

Beek

The critique by Prof. Moskalev that quantum tunneling effects would render the supercap well under the claimed capacity has met with silence by EEStor. This is a most serious charge. Moskalev says the real capacity is 50 times less than the claimed capacity. He says the upper limit to this technology is about 30 Wh/kg.

Its strange that EEStor plans to deliver a 15 KWh pack in 2007, and is ramping up powder production lines. But EEStor has yet to demonstrate a working 10,000 or even 1,000 micro farad 3,500 volt capacitor, of quantity one, based on their invention.

Greg Woulf

Time will tell. EESTOR certainly has no obligation to answer to anyone since they haven't opened the stock up to public ownership.

I read the post by Prof Moskalev on the Tesla blog and nothing he posted was proof that their claims were false.

He thinks they overlooked something, they don't seem to think they do.

I'm a skeptic at heart, and don't believe EESTOR automatically, but their deadline is this year. We don't have long to wait to see the veracity of their claims.

Harvey D.

R & D could be considered a commodity financed by Risk Capital and/or Public Funds. Once a product has been designed and tested it could be sold on an open global market for mass production and sale or partly produced by the creators/designers or whoever can produce it at the lowest cost.

Global Patend protection + Royalties would ensure a good and fair return on investment for the R&D and origianl financial support sources. Public Administrations should also get a fair return on their initial investments, as much so as private Risk Capital.

Altair, EEStor, A123 Systems, Electrovaya and other American or Canadian battery developers cannot produce affordable storage unit locally. Part of (or most of) the production will have to be moved to countries with lower labour cost to bring the price down (affordable). This is what happened to Computers, TV, Radio, Telephones, Video Game Consoles, small appliances etc., and what is progressively happening to automobiles.

Chances are that well over 50% of us will be driving imported (affordable) PHEVs and/or BEVs by 2020-2025. China will become a major supplier because they can build the batteries, control systems, electrical drive trains and the vehicles at a much lower cost.

Beek

China is already the largest manufacturer of Li-ion e-mopeds and Li-ion e-bikes. These are now being imported into north America in large quantities.

It is just a matter of time before BEV production moves to China. The ICE is a piece of machinery that does not render itself to easy mass production and easy maintenance. But this is not the case for electric motors and electronic control systems.

And then the Chinese have already mastered the art of low-cost Li-ion production, and A123 nanolion batteries are already being manufactured in China, as per the company.

The handwriting is on the wall. If GM/Ford cannot read it, they have no right to be around with a parasitic existance.

Harvey D.

Beek:

I too can't see how the Big Three can survive another 10 years without switching from ICE gas guzzlers to PHEVs and BEVs i.e. before Japan and China get going with massive production of such vehicles and associated components.

Could the Big Three survive by moving their (PHEV + BEV) future production to Asia and downsizing their USA/Canada operations to a niche light trucks 4 x 4 gas guzzler market? GM is already well established in China, the Chevrolet Volt could be produced there.

Alternatively, batteries, control systems, e-drive trains and other sub-assemblies could be manufactured in Asia and final assembly (only) done in USA/Canada ex-ICE fully automated plants.

Jimmi

Don't forget Altair is in China also. They supply their nLTO materials to ABAT, Advanced Battery Technologies for their PLI, polymer-lithium-ion batteries. Did some digging and these are a few things the PLI battery is being used for...

----------

NEW YORK, May 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: ABAT - News), a developer and manufacturer of rechargeable Polymer-Lithium-Ion (PLI) batteries, announced today that its China-based subsidiary received an order from Beijing Tonghe Jiye Trade Ltd. ("Tonghe Jiye") for 100,000 mine-use lamps using ABAT's 3.7V 9Ah Polymer Lithium-Ion (PLI) batteries. The order has a total contract value of RMB 24.8 million or around $3 million dollars. Shipments are to begin in July of this year.

-----------

SANTA ROSA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 28, 2005--ZAP (OTCBB:ZAPZ - News), pioneering the next generation of advanced transportation and energy technologies, announced today that the Company has signed an Agreement of Intent with Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (OTCBB:ABAT - News) to develop, manufacture and distribute electric vehicles using ABAT's Polymer Lithium-Ion (PLI) batteries. ABAT develops and manufactures its PLI batteries in its factory in Harbin, People's Republic of China.

(This is too funny... Altair has a battery agreement with Phoenix Motor Cars... however... Altair has a materials agreement with ABAT that makes the batteries for the company ZAP which makes EVs in California as competition to Phoenix... thought you guys might like that =)

----------------

NEW YORK, April 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: ABAT - News), a developer and manufacturer of rechargeable Polymer-Lithium-Ion (PLI) batteries, announced today that Aiyingsi Co., Ltd. of Taiwan has renewed its purchase order for 60,000 3.7V 200Ah Polymer Lithium-Ion (PLI) batteries with a total contract value of $21 million dollars. The renewed order has a one-year term with shipments to begin later this year. The contract had been suspended pending the completion of ABAT's new factory in China, which resumed operation on April 12, 2005.

----------------

That's what ABAT has been doing since their agreement with Altair. The plot thickens between the rivals Altair and A123... but is there a shadow named Eestor or Maxell in the background.

Here's an update on possible plans for Ford. Read today in the Virginian-Pilot an article from the Associated Press... forgot the author but he mentioned that Ford has plans to take continual loses for the next few years. It wasn't quoted from a Ford representitive but the author words seemed apparent.

Hey DocX... if you're reading this... guess what Ford might be planning? This is speculation but let's say Ford takes these loses for the next few years... head to bankruptcy proceedings which would take about a year or so to conclude. That's 3 years!!! The same amount of time for the Altair/Phoenix agreement. Would make sense also... Ford can still have an agreement with Altair for HEV and PHEV. That way the can research the nLTO for 3 years "under the HEV/PHEV exclusion" and come out with their own EV in 3 years time. Right after the bankruptcy discharge and a nice semi-clean slate. And that'll beat the time frame of GM's VOLT (2010-2012) which will most likely use A123 technology. Maybe Altair is really in the lead again and remember I'm just speculating =)

Martin

I was looking around to see if there was other work been done on creating high energy ceramic patents and I am interested in seeing comments on this one.
This is a patent from BASF regarding a Barium Titanate Capacitor that can be charged to 200v and have an energy density of 5.5kwh/liter!. This sounds somewhat superior to the eestor though they dont specifically outline the energy density per kg.
It configuration is a somewhat different from EEstor version it seems have a first a conductive layer then a layer of Barium Titanate and then another conductive layer, as opposed to the insulating layers that eestor is using.
BASF research into ceramic capacitors is mentioned on its future business pages but without any details.
http://www.basf-fb.de/en/futurebusiness/themen/energiemanagement/projekte.htm?id=V00-X7Cow9w.2bw21d0#2
Anyway I have not seen the BASF patent mentioned in discussions of eestor and would like to see what others think of its potential, particularly as BASF is a fairly substantial company.

Martin

I should have mentioned its patent 7023687

Hopeful

In reference to the 5.5 kwh per liter, the specific gravity (density vs. water) of ceramics/metals is 3 to 5 which equates to 3 to 5 kg/liter. This would mean that the patent above would yeild 1000 to 1500 wh/kg which would still be a doubling or trebling of the others.

Carl Hage

I wonder what the target cost/KWh is supposed to be.

In the post from a year ago there was mention of a 52Kw module, ~200Kg, with future high volume price of $2100. That's an amazing number at about $40/KWh.

Above, there is mention of a 15KWh module, not 52Kwh, but at $2100/module, that's $140/KWh, still good.

I don't know how much the Tesla EV's 50KWh battery module would sell for, but assuming Li-Ion batteries in 100 packs go for $600-800/KWh, the 50KWh module would be ~$30K.

The ABT contract mentioned above (60K*3.7V*200Ah for $21M) is $300/Kwh. (unassembled 60K quantity)

If EEStor's batteries are really $40-$140/KWh, then it seems like this techonolgy would also be useful for electric utility power storage. Used with solar or wind energy that might not generate 60Hz AC, DC storage is well suited.

Compare this to other cost estimates for utility-scale storage, e.g. Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries at ~$325/KWh ($350-600/KWh smaller scale).

I had a hard time finding costs for pumped hydro,
but looks like the Tianhuangping pumped-storage hydro plant in China is around $100/KWh, but requires 2 x 8M m3 water storage reservoirs.
($1.08G for 10.8GWh of energy storage, roughly)

With 500m elevation, that's about 1.4Wh/Kg
vs ~250Wh/Kg referenced above for EEstor modules. The Li-Ion batteries cells are ~150-200Wh/Kg, and Tesla's assembled module is ~111Wh/Kg. I don't have dimensions for the Tesla module, but should be about 400Wh/l for batteries (~125 l/module or ~30gal). Pumped hydro uses two reservoirs consuming .7Wh/l in the example above.

The battery or pumped storage efficiencies are around 70%. I wonder what the potential is for these untracapacitors.

Jimmi

Are the safety concerns of the Eestor ultracapacitors fit for the automotive market? I've read a few times in this site that the total release of such an amount of energy due to integrity failure in an automobile would basically make the car FUBAR... (sorry for the vulgarity but that was the best word I could come up with). If this is true than the ultracapacitors will not make it in the US market due to safety concerns. Atleast I think it won't? Am I wrong in thinking this?

dangrdoc

I have been searching for months looking for any confirmation that they have created one capacitor.

Does one of these things exist in the world?

I understand that even if they create one in the lab, it may never be feasible for mass production but I would like to know if it is possible to store that much power in a capacitor.

Does anybody know if there is one of these things sitting in an eestor lab?

amazingdrx

Sounds reasonable Jimmi, given the ease with which bankruptcy is acomplished for corporate citizens like Ford.

But is Ford really that forward looking? We'll see. I bet the boardroomies there still believe gas guzzling will never end.

I wonder if any insiders still own any Ford stock? it will be worthless soon. Given the likely bankruptcy. Former K-mart shareholders could warn them.

Maybe chinese compamies will be better trading targets in this new boom cycle? I want to spot the Google (formerly Cisco) of this energy revolution and trade it through options into earnings over and over until it squeals.

patrick bird

It would be great if eestor would team up with the big three gm ford chrysler and develope this technology.This would be in the interest of Northamerica.

The comments to this entry are closed.

. .




Batteries/Hybrid Vehicles