There is a graph on the Peak Energy website that is a startling representation of how oil prices have been going up at a linear pace over the past two years. If the trend is correct, the downward movement in the past couple of months is typical and an upward trend should resume in somewhare in the first quarter. While this pattern may not be a surprise, and is for a relatively short period, the consistency of the trend is amazing. The slope is an increase in oil price of about $14 per year, which would extrapolate to about $74-$75 a barrel for October of next year. I don't believe that such a short term trend means that much statistically, but it certainly argues that the range of oil prices next year could be between $50 and $75.