A 5/30 post by Odograph, referred to a 5/29 post at Green Car Congress regarding a lecture, A Physicist's View of the World's Energy Situation, given to the Colloquium at Fermilab, by BP’s Chief Scientist Dr Steven Koonin. Koonin has impeccable credentials which are articulated by Odograph. This is a very good presentation which should be viewed by all who have any interest in energy. The presentation evaluates the future of various sources of energy and the global warming implications of energy use.
The first part of the presentation deals with energy. "OPEC's spare capacity is gone ... Small perturbations affect the market." He strikes a balance between geologists ("Hubbert's and all that") and economists view of supply, saying that both are probably right. The future includes deep water drilling, large reserves of heavy oil in Venezuela, 1.3 trillion barrels, and gasification/Fischer-Tropsch conversion to FT diesel, all of which are more expensive than conventional oil. His largest sources of energy in the future included, oil from enhanced recovery, heavy oil, nuclear power, hydrogen for power and biofuels. At some point fuel substitution will be attractive.
The presentation on global warming is the best I have seen , presenting what appeared to me to be a very realistic approach to the subject. He covered all aspects of global warming, where greenhouse gases (GG) come from, how fast GG emissions are increasing and where they could be sequestered. He appeared not to be totally convinced that global warming was coming, but said we had no choice but to take precautionary actions. His approach was to concentrate on the CO2 aspect, considering it the primary indicator of global warming and assuming a critical concentration in the atmosphere of 550 ppm.
His outlook was as to be expected from a representative of the oil and gas industry, implying that oil would be available for quite some time, although expensive. He used R/P ratios (reserves/production) to imply duration of reserves which are misleading. His solution, other than petroleum, for future liquid fuel supplies was biofuels and Fischer-Tropsch liquids. He did not seem to think hydrogen for transportation was likely.