The Energy Revolution Has Begun

The start of the energy revolution is evidenced by continued high prices of energy and the successful introduction of hybrid cars by several manufacturers.  The revolution is fueled by the tight supplies and resulting price volatility of petroleum products and natural gas. These tight supplies are going to continue over the next 20-30 years, accompanied by further increases in prices, until reliable alternative supplies of energy are found, especially for transportation vehicles. This transition period, in which we have tight energy supplies, while we are continuing to develop vehicles that run on a new energy supply, as well as while we are developing alternate and improved energy sources for electrical generation defines the energy revolution.

Supply - New production capacity of oil is growing at a slower rate than demand.  This combined with the fact that refineries are running at very high utilization factors creates conditions that make the prices of gasoline, fuel oil and diesel to be very high and quite volatile.

Population and Demand - The world’s population is currently growing at a rate of about 1.15% per year according to a recent study by the UN. World population growth rate is slowly decreasing, which if continued would result in a stable population or declining population at some time.  It is currently forecast that population will level out at about 9 billion people between 2050 and 2075, 50% greater than our current population. Thus if energy per capita were to remain the same, energy demand would go up 50% in about 50 years. Per capita oil consumption varies widely from 1.25-2.5 barrels/capita/year (bcy) in low income fast growing, industrializing countries, to 10-12 bcy in EU nations, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore and 25 bcy in the US and Canada. 

Historically energy demand has grown about 2% per year and this rate is increasing because of the continued industrialization of underdeveloped countries. A recent article in World Oil reported that in 2004 the world wide demand for oil grew at the unprecedented rate of 3.5% a year. Increases were the greatest in emerging nations, especially China and India.  The United States consumed 25% of the production in 2003.  China consumed 7.6% and Japan 6.8%.  EIA statistics reveal that China's demand for oil increased by 20% in 2004 and the rest of Asia’s demand increased by 5.7%. The OECD counties consumed 61% of the total. The OECD countries consumed 60% of the total. The US must import 60% of its crude oil and increasing quantities of natural gas.

Peak Oil – Our current fossil fuel sources of energy are finite and becoming less dependable as they near their peak of production.  This simply means that at some time conventional fossil fuels will not be able to meet our needs. Our standard of living will start to decline if we do not find alternative supplies of energy to replace them.  The peak will result in even more volatility to prices that could well last 20 to 30 years.  My preliminary assessment of oil supplies, after reviewing about 10 experts widely differing opinions on oil supplies, is that we will reach this peak in 2-10 years.  The transportation sector uses about two-thirds of petroleum products in the US and will be the sector that is hardest to transition to an alternative energy source.  Thus finding alternative energy sources for the transportation sector is a most immediate concern, requiring an energy policy with a vastly increased emphasis on finding solutions to the near term problems of vehicular propulsion and energy supplies.

Apparently, until recently, use of the term “Peak Oil” has been associated with alarmists and looked upon disparagingly by oil companies and governmental agencies.  Some peak oil activists have claimed, for the last 50 years, that the peak was going to occur within a short time.  Supposedly the detractors did not like to admit, at least publicly or with such a blatant term, that at some time in foreseeable future there would be a shortage of oil.  This has changed now with both major oil companies and the government admitting that an oil shortage is in the not too far distant future. 

The term Peak Oil is used to describe the time when world wide production of conventional oil¹ reaches its maximum and then goes into permanent decline. This is not to be confused with when the peak of total oil² production occurs. According to Campbell the peak of conventional oil will occur in 2006 and the peak of total oil in 2007.  At the other end of the spectrum is the EIA which forecasts that the peak of total oil will occur in 2037±10 years.  Liquid petroleum production from unconventional oil combined with conservation will have to make up the difference between conventional oil production and demand. In 2000 Campbell reported that unconventional oil made up about 6% of production, in 2005 he estimates it will make up about 10%. Development of unconventional oil sources must proceed faster than is now planned. That it will be, in general, more costly than conventional oil is implied by the name – otherwise it would have been developed sooner.  Peak oil, whenever it occurs, will cause serious problems in other sectors of the economy. However these sectors rely primarily on electricity, which can be generated from several more abundant sources of energy.  What is sure is that peaking is inevitable and it will result in dramatically higher oil prices accompanied by economic havoc.Hirsch, p46 current fuel cell technology is very, very expensive, has insufficient longevity and has poor efficiency. Significantly improved technology with major cost reductions is required.  The most optimistic forecasts indicate that fuel celled powered vehicles will not have widespread use until 2020 to 2025, probably too late to relieve the initial impact of declining supplies of liquid fuels. Use of electric cars for transportation is unlikely until a major breakthrough in battery technology is made and thus cannot be considered at the present time. 

One or two of my future posts will be exclusively on "Peak Oil" to further explore this topic.  In the mean time, if you are so inclined, you could look through my links on peak oil, especially Campbell, Hirsch, EIA, Laherrere, and Simmons.  There is inconsistency in the predictions because some forecast conventional oil and some forecast total oil or somewhere in between.

Although there are many alternative sources of energy that are under development, most of them are either suited to producing electricity or too early in their development to be available to help the transportation sector in the early years of the energy revolution.  That leaves us with four alternatives based on demonstrated technologies:

• Increasing the standards for fuel efficiency.
• Accelerated use of existing vehicle technology - the diesel engine and hybrid vehicles.   
• Increased use of and improvements in enhanced oil recovery.
• Increased use of unconventional oil.
• Accelerated use of renewable fuels, notably ethanol and biodiesel.

Hybrid vehicles are the first step in reducing gasoline consumption. Greater use of diesel powered vehicles, which can reduce fuel consumption by 30% compared to conventional gasoline engines, would also substantially reduce fuel consumption.

Parallel to this and more importantly, we must put an emphasis on increasing the production of unconventional liquid fuels.  About 1 million barrels per day of unconventional oil are produced today and the technology and production costs have been well demonstrated.  Current technology is competitive with conventional oil at about $50 per barrel.  Demand for unconventional oil will continue after the fuel cell is widely deployed.  Liquid fuels will continue to be required for other forms of transportation, such as the airplane and large trucks as well as for petrochemicals and residential heating.

Biofuels: ethanol, biodiesel Fischer-Tropsch diesel and pyrolisis oils are emerging as very important technologies.  They are especially important since they are renewable - their source is vegetation that can continue to be grown independent of whether we have fossil fuels or not. 

One long term solution to propelling our vehicles is to use an alternative form of propulsion that does not use liquid fuels, such as hydrogen powered fuel cells. This is the only alternative that has come to the forefront and it appears that the automotive industry has accepted this technology as being the most likely to succeed.

Depending on scheduled breakthroughs in technology to meet a deadline is one of the greatest risks that can be taken.  I have learned this lesson well in my career in R & D and it is inappropriate to take such risks to solve a problem of this magnitude.

In summary I quote from Hirsch, p60, as his final conclusion regarding resolving the problems of the transportation sector “The world has never confronted a problem like this, and the failure to act on a timely basis could have debilitating impacts on the world economy.”

---

1.  Conventional oil is readily pumpable oil from wells plus gas liquids.

2. Unconventional oil includes oil from coal and shale, bitumen, extra-heavy oil and tar sands oil.

Comments

[Big Gav]

Where did you get this from : "Some peak oil activists have claimed, for the last 50 years, that the peak was going to occur within a short time." ?

I thought the peak oil idea wasn't invented until the 1950's by M King Hubbert - and his best guess for a global peak was around 2000 (but he only predicted a US peak as that was what he had sufficient data for).

[Scott Alberhasky]

Hubbert predicted peak oil for USA in 1970, which turned out to be correct. The world has been using more oil than it has found for around 40 years--the peak finding year for oil was in the 60's. It is quite evident that we will reach peak oil production at some point and that oil prices will rise and alternative fuels will then have to make up the difference. The only question is timing.

[Jim]

The solutions to future transportation fuel scarcity are many. Here are just a few:

1. Driving less.
2. Smaller lighter vehicles.
3. Smart cars than can communicate and draft on the highway. Smart cars can also make very small light vehicles safe.
4. Uglier but more aerodynamic vehicle.
5. More use of 2 wheel vehicle.
6. Battery electric vehicles (inconvenient but if gasoline goes over $10/gallon so what)
7. Plug-in hybrid vehicles.
8. Direct injection.
9. HCCI
10 Better ICEs like the StarRotor. Until the price of Gasoline rises there is no reason the Auto industry should looks at these.
11. At some fuel cost rail could take over from diesel trucks for moving products.
12. Coal to liquid.

[Randolph Toom]

A new generation of vehicles should reduce fuel consumption. Combining light weight, low drag, an efficient motor/engine and highly efficient regenerative braking are the keys to success of bringing the fuel consumption of that vehicle down. But in the first place we should ask ourselves the question: why be mobile anyway? Is your work so far away from home? Are the shops far away from home? Do you buy products from far away countries? Many things to think about.

But lets have a look at the vehicles first. Do you still use a heavy 5-7 seater for your individual mobility? Doesn't seem responsable to me. Have a look at this overview of slender comfort vehicles that will pave the way for a new generation of motorized personal mobility on http://www.randolph-automotive.com and click on tilting threewheelers in the menu.

Let me know your thoughts.

Kind regards,

Randolph Toom

[Jim from The Energy Blog]

Did you see the post on the Sleek Aptera Hybrid Designed for 330 mpg? It will be available next year for $20,000. I don't know if it will be a success, but it is a try at the concept you are promoting. I think it will be a long time before most people will buy one of these, but I hope it has enough sales to make it a success.

[Andrew W.]

Sustainability skeptics that try to scare the world of Peak Oil's devastating effects are intimidating, but unwarranted. They fail to consider:

1. Coal can replace oil for another 25 years if you factor in the total energy consumption growth rate (which will actually be declining as population growth rate declines - so even 50 years of energy supply via coal is in foresight).
2. In this timeframe, the price of oil will and SHOULD increase drastically as a wakeup alarm for the occurrence of the transition to renewables. The transition will probably have made great progress when coal nears depletion.
3. We treat cars and oil like toys - this can change. Why lug around tons of steel just to move yourself? This is extremely inefficient from any scientist's perspective. If we all switched to a slightly more efficient vehicle, the problem would disappear for another many decades. Oh, and how often do you go out because you ACTUALLY need to?
4. The students working on solar cars say a unit can be produced for half a million dollars ... if we invest in the manufacturing process of these vehicles, that figure can be drastically reduced.
5. All of the above will likely happen, as society will not allow the quality of our lives to decrease as a result of oil shortage while alternatives are available.

Did you know that if you covered the entire world with solar collectors, it would only take 20 days to collect an amount of energy equivalent to ALL the fossil fuels that were ever on this planet

So... go ahead, and listen to those yelping about the devastation Peak Oil will bring. But I look forward to exciting solutions ahead of us.

[Sam Fraser]

I am a very keen follower of the "Green energy revolution". The toughest challenge I face is when I try to answer the question "how does a commoner contribute to this procees?". I know we can try and do a few things such as "reduce usage of non-green energy", donate small amounts to non profits and so on. But, is there anything slightly more than this that can be done? Something that would make some impact?

I am really keen on doing something in the area of Wind Energy. I am a technical person - though not experienced in this particular technology. I am a software and marketing professional with over 20 years of experience. The green energy revolution has really fascinated me and I do want to play a role in the progress this segment makes for the betterment of the planet we live on!

Any ideas?

-Sam

[Chet Esium]

"What is sure is that peaking is inevitable and it will result in dramatically higher oil prices accompanied by economic havoc."

I stopped reading right about there. Sure, conventional oil production will probably peak. However, unconventional oil production (drilling slightly deeper wells further out to sea, and using more viscous sour oil) will fill in the gap without dramatically higher (long term) oil prices. People have this amazing property that as they learn how to do something, it becomes cheaper and easier to do. The oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico used to be fairly expensive. But now they compete with saudi oil.

Over the next two decades, we will increase our production of hydrocarbons through a variety of menas and we will decrease our consumption of those hydrocarbons by using them more efficiently (hybrid vehicles and carbon fibers). We will not see dramatically higher prices nor economic havoc.

[Chris]

Chet misses the point. Price of oil is no longer the major issue as it was in 1979.

We all desperately need to stop being addicted to oil and burning it.

This will help the planet on two fronts: We stop 'Funding both sides in the war on Terror' (see Tom Freidman, NYT 'Addicted to Oil' Discovery Channel), and we top 'Warming up the Planet' (See Al Gore - 'An Inconvenient Truth' and Prof Lovelock - 'Revenge of Gaia').

Just face it. Oil as a fuel will be progressively phased out as quickly as peoples can be persuaded to change their habits and Japan Inc can switch from ICE's to EV's.

[peo]

The way to do it:

Design all buildings to be energy production units.
Design electric vehicles to recharge at charging stations that are housed along the roads and at home.

Consume Less, Produce More.

[Andy Perry]

The biggest impediment to the average person in getting involved with alternative solutions is the tremendous up-front cost. Our company has removed this barrier and is poised to revolutionize the residential solar market in the US. Check out my website and become an associate to spread the message and grow your own business if you wish. Have a Sunny Day!

[karl (asdf promoter got it almost right)]

Above, and pasted below, Andrew argues for "slight" improvements in what has us torturing and slaughtering to afford toys that honestly almost no one enjoys suffering the ownership or even leasing of.

Others argue that hey, running out later is better, lt's be blind to that day, even if it's when we retire, or before, or merely our kids wake up call upon some milestone.

Inflation has to be real, and high, to justify using up products that are expensive to make, more expensive forever then to currently mine.

Seeding clouds for rain works- but only up to a point. Same for almost everything else.

But science says more then that. It says that even if you can't pedal, if you are eating, then your shit can get you so far from where you sit, without raising your heartbeat one bit.

Sustainability says just that. It says our interest is adviserial to those whose goal is more of us, period.

It's not too late to only let those who want kids have only as many as they care to have.

To let truth be free. Not biblically oppressed from almost of thee.

When powers that be want us to forget our dreams, they seem to have gotten that. Now owning land for one self is so quaint. We surrender the dirt without any protest. It is our land, and legal for us to buy it. the light, the night, the ability to fly our own kite, it is for this that we only used to struggle and die and nobly or not really fight.

To be competent one does not have to be wise. So wrote one of my supreme courts in an effort to sin against the unwise, which, if next week, won't at least be a complete surprise. He is transcribed as saying man is not with the ability to judge. Given that he wrote this to persuade judges, I think perhaps a case for incompetency could and should still be made. Because those judges of course silently get there revenge on his contempt of them.

A needle, placed under his skin- no fear of taking anything themselves not even in the shin.

As the writers of 24 dared to say- if there is no right to speak, why bother listening? Why aspire to that? WHy care? One must dare, in order to be fair. Or this is no place worthy of protection.

Locally Ford's fiasco with cop mobiles reads Kafka not or just knotted. The powersteering they'll fix, just give them time. Public money instead bails them out. Easy to spend- to cover up what? Spare ford. Yeah right. Punish the Cartoon channel. But Ford, hey, they can be trusted. They won't spill the beans. NO need to seek any greens from them.

Our cars are our prison cells. Escape is possible. Fear is silly. Stand outside them, there is not even a tank headed torwards you, only the one you climb into. It's the belly of the beast, it's the beast, it's not alive. Of this I jive sure, beg you not to drive, find a better place to five a hive.

"3. We treat cars and oil like toys - this can change. Why lug around tons of steel just to move yourself? This is extremely inefficient from any scientist's perspective. If we all switched to a slightly more efficient vehicle, the problem would disappear for another many decades. Oh, and how often do you go out because you ACTUALLY need to?"

[karl (asdf promoter got it almost right)]

Above, and pasted below, Andrew argues for "slight" improvements in what has us torturing and slaughtering to afford toys that honestly almost no one enjoys suffering the ownership or even leasing of.

Others argue that hey, running out later is better, lt's be blind to that day, even if it's when we retire, or before, or merely our kids wake up call upon some milestone.

Inflation has to be real, and high, to justify using up products that are expensive to make, more expensive forever then to currently mine.

Seeding clouds for rain works- but only up to a point. Same for almost everything else.

But science says more then that. It says that even if you can't pedal, if you are eating, then your shit can get you so far from where you sit, without raising your heartbeat one bit.

Sustainability says just that. It says our interest is adviserial to those whose goal is more of us, period.

It's not too late to only let those who want kids have only as many as they care to have.

To let truth be free. Not biblically oppressed from almost of thee.

When powers that be want us to forget our dreams, they seem to have gotten that. Now owning land for one self is so quaint. We surrender the dirt without any protest. It is our land, and legal for us to buy it. the light, the night, the ability to fly our own kite, it is for this that we only used to struggle and die and nobly or not really fight.

To be competent one does not have to be wise. So wrote one of my supreme courts in an effort to sin against the unwise, which, if next week, won't at least be a complete surprise. He is transcribed as saying man is not with the ability to judge. Given that he wrote this to persuade judges, I think perhaps a case for incompetency could and should still be made. Because those judges of course silently get there revenge on his contempt of them.

A needle, placed under his skin- no fear of taking anything themselves not even in the shin.

As the writers of 24 dared to say- if there is no right to speak, why bother listening? Why aspire to that? WHy care? One must dare, in order to be fair. Or this is no place worthy of protection.

Locally Ford's fiasco with cop mobiles reads Kafka not or just knotted. The powersteering they'll fix, just give them time. Public money instead bails them out. Easy to spend- to cover up what? Spare ford. Yeah right. Punish the Cartoon channel. But Ford, hey, they can be trusted. They won't spill the beans. NO need to seek any greens from them.

Our cars are our prison cells. Escape is possible. Fear is silly. Stand outside them, there is not even a tank headed torwards you, only the one you climb into. It's the belly of the beast, it's the beast, it's not alive. Of this I jive sure, beg you not to drive, find a better place to five a hive.

"3. We treat cars and oil like toys - this can change. Why lug around tons of steel just to move yourself? This is extremely inefficient from any scientist's perspective. If we all switched to a slightly more efficient vehicle, the problem would disappear for another many decades. Oh, and how often do you go out because you ACTUALLY need to?"

[David Moreland]

I tend to agree peak oil is not to far off and that this will create some disruption in the economy and our way of life.

However, the free market will efficiently meet this challenge at the appropriate time, primarily with additional conservation. In general conservation investments are the best way to reduce demand on limited petroleum resources.

Energy Guru
www.energy-guru.blogspot.com

[pmf]

Here is a good way to take advantage.

[Rick]

Talking about what is to be in the future is fun, but what do you do about energy consumption now? The Reliant distribution area bill electrical demand in Kva. Kva can be reduced easily which will reduce consumption and your electric bill. This is something that is available now.

[Jay Drai]

Energy Independence begins with Energy efficiency - It's cheaper to save energy than to make energy.

Updated September 4, 2007
MANDATORY RENEWABLE ENERGY – THE ENERGY EVOLUTION –R21
By Jay Draiman, Energy Consultant

Today’s energy industry is perhaps the world’s most powerful. Energy is the basis of all this world’s wealth, and for perhaps earth’s entire history, the sun’s energy has fueled all ecological and economic systems. If early humans did not learn to exploit new sources of energy, humankind would still be living in the tropical forests. Without the continual exploitation of new energy sources, there would have been no civilization, no Industrial Revolution and no looming global catastrophe.

In order to insure energy and economic independence as well as better economic growth without being blackmailed by foreign countries, our country, the United States of America’s Utilization of Energy Sources must change.
"Energy drives our entire economy.” We must protect it. "Let's face it, without energy the whole economy and economic society we have set up would come to a halt. So you want to have control over such an important resource that you need for your society and your economy." The American way of life is not negotiable.
Our continued dependence on fossil fuels could and will lead to catastrophic consequences.

The federal, state and local government should implement a mandatory renewable energy installation program for residential and commercial property on new construction and remodeling projects, replacement of appliances, motors, HVAC with the use of energy efficient materials-products, mechanical systems, appliances, lighting, insulation, retrofits etc. The source of energy must be by renewable energy such as Solar-Photovoltaic, Geothermal, Wind, Biofuels, Ocean-Tidal, Hydrogen-Fuel Cell etc. This includes the utilizing of water from lakes, rivers and oceans to circulate in cooling towers to produce air conditioning and the utilization of proper landscaping to reduce energy consumption. (Sales tax on renewable energy products and energy efficiency should be reduced or eliminated)

The implementation of mandatory renewable energy could be done on a gradual scale over the next 10 years. At the end of the 10 year period all construction and energy use in the structures throughout the United States must be 100% powered by renewable energy. (This can be done by amending building code)

In addition, the governments must impose laws, rules and regulations whereby the utility companies must comply with a fair “NET METERING” (the buying of excess generation from the consumer at market price), including the promotion of research and production of “renewable energy technology” with various long term incentives and grants. The various foundations in existence should be used to contribute to this cause.

A mandatory time table should also be established for the automobile industry to gradually produce an automobile powered by renewable energy. The American automobile industry is surely capable of accomplishing this task. As an inducement to buy hybrid automobiles (sales tax should be reduced or eliminated on American manufactured automobiles).

This is a way to expedite our energy independence and economic growth. (This will also create a substantial amount of new jobs). It will take maximum effort and a relentless pursuit of the private, commercial and industrial government sectors’ commitment to renewable energy – energy generation (wind, solar, hydro, biofuels, geothermal, energy storage (fuel cells, advance batteries), energy infrastructure (management, transmission) and energy efficiency (lighting, sensors, automation, conservation) (rainwater harvesting, water conservation) (energy and natural resources conservation) in order to achieve our energy independence.
I believe what America needs are cool headed government leaders who understand how markets function and can work with consumers, voters and oil industry leaders to develop a viable energy strategy that will help and not hinder as our nation transitions to our new energy reality.
"To succeed, you have to believe in something with such a passion that it becomes a reality."

Jay Draiman, Energy Consultant
Northridge, CA. 91325
September 3, 2007

P.S. I have a very deep belief in America's capabilities. Within the next 10 years we can accomplish our energy independence, if we as a nation truly set our goals to accomplish this.

I happen to believe that we can do it. In another crisis--the one in 1942--President Franklin D. Roosevelt said this country would build 60,000 [50,000] military aircraft. By 1943, production in that program had reached 125,000 aircraft annually. They did it then. We can do it now.

"the way we produce and use energy must fundamentally change."
The American people resilience and determination to retain the way of life is unconquerable and we as a nation will succeed in this endeavor of Energy Independence.

The Oil Companies should be required to invest a substantial percentage of their profit in renewable energy R&D and implementation. Those who do not will be panelized by the public at large by boy cutting their products.

Solar energy is the source of all energy on the earth (excepting volcanic geothermal). Wind, wave and fossil fuels all get their energy from the sun. Fossil fuels are only a battery which will eventually run out. The sooner we can exploit all forms of Solar energy (cost effectively or not against dubiously cheap FFs) the better off we will all be. If the battery runs out first, the survivors will all be living like in the 18th century again.

Every new home built should come with a solar package. A 1.5 kW per bedroom is a good rule of thumb. The formula 1.5 X's 5 hrs per day X's 30 days will produce about 225 kWh per bedroom monthly. This peak production period will offset 17 to 2

4 cents per kWh with a potential of $160 per month or about $60,000 over the 30-year mortgage period for a three-bedroom home. It is economically feasible at the current energy price and the interest portion of the loan is deductible. Why not?

Title 24 has been mandated forcing developers to build energy efficient homes. Their bull-headedness put them in that position and now they see that Title 24 works with little added cost. Solar should also be mandated and if the developer designs a home that solar is impossible to do then they should pay an equivalent mitigation fee allowing others to put solar on in place of their negligence. (Installation should be paid “performance based”).

Installation of renewable energy and its performance should be paid to the installer and manufacturer based on "performance based" (that means they are held accountable for the performance of the product - that includes the automobile industry). This will gain the trust and confidence of the end-user to proceed with such a project; it will also prove to the public that it is a viable avenue of energy conservation.

Installing a renewable energy system on your home or business increases the value of the property and provides a marketing advantage. It also decreases our trade deficit.

Nations of the world should unite and join together in a cohesive effort to develop and implement MANDATORY RENEWABLE ENERGY for the sake of humankind and future generations.

The head of the U.S. government's renewable energy lab said Monday (Feb. 5) that the federal government is doing "embarrassingly few things" to foster renewable energy, leaving leadership to the states at a time of opportunity to change the nation's energy future. "I see little happening at the federal level. Much more needs to happen." What's needed, he said, is a change of our national mind set. Instead of viewing the hurdles that still face renewable sources and setting national energy goals with those hurdles in mind, we should set ambitious national renewable energy goals and set about overcoming the hurdles to meet them. We have an opportunity, an opportunity we can take advantage of or an opportunity we can squander and let go,"

solar energy - the direct conversion of sunlight with solar cells, either into electricity or hydrogen, faces cost hurdles independent of their intrinsic efficiency. Ways must be found to lower production costs and design better conversion and storage systems.

Disenco Energy of the UK has announced it has reached important
milestones leading to full commercialization, such as the completion of
field trials for its home, micro combined heat and power plant (m-CHP).
The company expects to begin a product roll out in the second quarter of
2008.
Operating at over 90 percent efficiency, the m-CHP will be able to
provide 15 kilowatts of thermal energy (about 50,000 Btu’s) for heat and
hot water and generate 3 kilowatts of electricity. The m-CHP uses a
Stirling engine generator and would be a direct replacement for a home’s
boiler.
Running on piped-in natural gas the unit would create some independence
from the power grid, but still remain connected to the gas supply
network.
Whereas heat is supplied only when the generator is running (or
conversely electricity is generated only when heat is needed) a back-up
battery system and heavily insulated hot water storage tank seem
eventual options for more complete energy independence.

FEDERAL BUILDINGS WITH SOLAR ENERGY – Renewable Energy
All government buildings, Federal, State, County, City etc. should be mandated to be energy efficient and must use renewable energy on all new structures and structures that are been remodeled/upgraded.
"The government should serve as an example to its citizens"

A new innovative renewable energy generating technology is in development. The idea behind Promethean Power came from Matthew Orosz, an MIT graduate student who has worked as a Peace Corps volunteer in the African nation of Lesotho. Orosz wanted to provide electric power, refrigeration, and hot water to people without electricity. He and some MIT colleagues designed a set of mirrors that focus sunlight onto tubes filled with coolant. The hot coolant turns to pressurized vapor, which turns a turbine to make electricity. The leftover heat can be used to warm a tank of water and to run a refrigerator or an air conditioner, using a gas-absorption process that chills liquid ammonia by first heating it.
IS TECHNOLOGY BEING HELD BACK
New Solar Electric Cells - 80% efficient
Mr. Marks says solar panels made with Lepcon or Lumeloid, the materials he patented, ... Most photovoltaic cells are only about 15 percent efficient. ...
A major increase in daily petroleum output is deemed essential to meet U.S. and international oil requirements in 2020, and so we should expect recurring oil shortages and price increases. Only by expediting the diminishing our day-to-day consumption of petroleum and implementing of efficiency and renewable energy policy can we hope to reduce our exposure to costly oil-supply disruptions and lower the risk of economic strangulation.
Quick Facts
 Energy is vital to every sector of the U.S. economy. As our economy grows, the demand for energy rises.

 Total energy consumption is projected to increase 35 percent by 2030.

 Energy-efficiency improvements have played a major role in meeting national energy needs since the 1970s, relative to new supply.
STEP INTO THE LIGHT – AND OUT TO THE WORLD
Jay Draiman, Energy Consultant
Northridge, CA 91324
Email: renewableenergy2@msn.com
Posted on: 09/4//2007

[A Greener World and A Dream Most Possible™]

A Greener World and A Dream Most Possible™

Explosive Growth
Global warming has highlighted the urgent need for consumer friendly electric vehicles. Electric bike production in China accounts for about 90% of the world’s total production according to a report from the Development Research Center. Lest year, 12 million electric bikes were produced with production expected to reach 30 million by 2010. According to IDTechEx, the electric vehicle (EV) business is booming with sales of $16.2 billion U.S. set to grow eleven fold to $177 billion U.S. in 2013. Vehicles in this sector include industrial, commercial, wheelchairs, two wheel (bicycles and scooters), four wheel (golf carts and cars), military, mobile robots and marine applications. But the adoption has been slowed due to poor performance characteristics. Today’s LEV, and EV have limited range, long recharge times, poor acceleration, short battery lives, poor hill climbing ability, and high torque output produces heat in the motor windings that must be removed to avoid motor, controller and battery damages. The “electric propulsion system (EPS)” or “power train” is the heart of any EV/LEV. All of the EV/LEV applications are potential buyers of the EPS.
The unique, state-of-the-art proprietary one-stop Single Vendor Electric Propulsion System (EPS) solution technology solves all EV/LEV drive-train's challenges
The company is positioned as a supplier of entire power train of battery, motor, and controller to its customers (EV/LEV makers).
 The company EPS are highly cost effective patented multi-winding permanent magnet (PM) brushless DC electric motors and intelligent softgear controllers, which control energy delivery to deliver maximum efficiency of output and power, prolong the life of the battery and reduce recharge time for EV/LEV markets
 Each winding virtually functions as one motor therefore providing “multiple motors in ONE”.
 Different virtual motor is used for different operations, such as “starting, accelerating, cruising, climbing steeper hills, etc.
 All virtual motors are controlled by the softgeared controller
 The company EPS solution significantly decreases the currents when higher torque output is required, such as startup, accelerating, climbing... solving these heating issues-“the winding temperature rise will eventually cause insulation breakdown, leading to heat flow to the rotor. In turn, this heat can demagnetize the high-energy magnets in the rotor...", avoiding motor, controller and battery from being damaged”
Double winding motor EPS configuration Performance Comparison Matrix Source: Company (2006)

 The company EPS solution for use in all EV/LEV will allow the speed and distance constraints of electric powered vehicles to be greatly expanded. And it also will change all EV/LEV performance characteristics and accelerate the adoption of EV/LEV.
 Most customers for motors are the vehicle makers – who would prefer a one stop source for the complete EPS system including motor, energy storage, controls, user interface and wiring harness. (All at a very low cost … of course!). Because most vehicle builders come from bicycle or motorcycle business, they do not have the experience or knowledge to integrate EPS themselves – they want to buy a complete solution.
 The company provides unique, proprietary one-step single vendor EPS source - “It is not just about motor…”, avoiding that “it is the software guy“– says the hardware guy; “No! – It is the hardware” says the software guy.


The company Product Technical Specification Cases
80-250W 36V double winding motor configuration 250-350W 48V double winding motor configuration 250-350W 48V triple winding motor configuration
High Speed: 280~266 rpm High Speed: 400 rpm Start Speed: 586 rpm
High Torque Speed: 220~210 rpm High Torque Speed: 320~290 rpm at electric current 7.5 amp High Torque Speed: 460 rpm at high speed: 500~520 rpm
Proven New Market/Technology Management
Management - Always a Key Ingredient for Successful Execution. Management at Magdyno is a unique blend of experienced marketers and manufacturers plus the “idea” guys. Our management team includes successful Chinese, Canadian and American leaders, who are proven entrepreneurs of change and creators of innovative business models that drive revenue and shareholder returns. In addition, we have world class technical experts and leading professors behind our products.
A Different Kind of Technology Company
Most new technology companies need to start from scratch. They have no products, no markets, and no contracts. Magdyno is different. Magdyno is positioned to be a paragon of the Green Energy industry as a supplier of entire power train of battery, motor, and controller to its customers (EV/LEV makers) to significantly increase energy efficiency of EV/LEV applications with ZERO AIR POLLUTION (ZAP) emission and No Noise (NN)
The company has spent years developing its industry-leading products and is now shipping them into LEV market. We need to ramp up production quickly in order to capture major market share.
Target Market
E-Bike Markets
Our initial target market is the electric bicycle industry. Below is the historical and estimated current predictions of electric bike sales in China (excludes exports) based on numbers given by the NDRC, Electric Bikes Worldwide and ExtraEnergy.org

Electric Wheelchair and Scooter Markets
Worldwide power wheelchair and scooter all terrain and regular personal vehicle markets have shifted dramatically in the last year. Vehicles are useful as personal vehicles in controlled settings, going beyond medical necessity to personal transport. Most vehicles are paid for by Medicare or private insurance as users are usually not as mobile as they wished. There is a small proportion of the market that is not paid for by public or private insurance. Scooter and power wheelchair vehicles are used in shopping settings, airports, in gated communities, and for local transport. Scooters and power wheelchairs are evolving a market presence that goes beyond handicapped transport to personal transport. Forecasts for 2006-2012 indicate the start of fuel cell personal vehicles and electric vehicles with longer lasting travel capability. There is a measurable sub segment of the market that addresses all terrain vehicles. Power wheelchair and scooter markets are expected to grow as the baby boomers age. The aging of the population is expected to change markets. Older people need more support for continued mobility through disability. Rehabilitation becomes more prevalent. Power wheelchair, scooter, and all terrain market forecasts indicate strong growth based on new technology and demand from people wanting a vehicle in between a heavy expensive to drive car and a manual wheelchair. Wheelchair and scooter markets at $1.7 billion in 2005 are expected to grow to $5.3 billion by 2012. Power wheelchairs and scooters provide mobility and move the healthcare delivery system toward the lower cost homecare. (Source: www.researchandmarkets.com).
E-Cars Markets
The LSV Market
The market for LSV’s in North America (US) is beginning to develop. While the LSV category has existed in legislation for 10 years, the recent surge in gasoline prices in the US and “need to be green” has accelerated interest in this category significantly. A study by International Competitive Assessments indicates the global market for golf cart type vehicles, neighborhood electric vehicles and utility vehicles has reached over 650,000 units with an end market value of US$2.5b. The California Air Resources Board notes a widespread need for LSV’s right across California. Interestingly, LSV’s in use in Europe total more than 200,000 vehicles on the road today, almost exclusively powered by internal combustion engines.
Urban Commuter/Neighborhood Market
While LSV’s have seen markets in the neighborhood/gated community markets for several years, the urban commuter market is now receiving attention. The urban commuter market has seen growing interest as gasoline prices have reached levels in the U.S. that make alternative energy choices attractive. In addition, there has been wide grass-roots emergence of energy self sufficiency since 2001 and the terrorist movement. Electric vehicles are viewed in the US a “patriotic” alternative.
Small Delivery-Institutional Market
With a bona fide LSV product available for the North American market, we fully expect the small delivery and institutional market for the ZENN to blossom. The ZENN would be very applicable to the small delivery market such as pizza delivery services, and institutional customers including parking enforcement, large complexes including university campuses, station car projects, resorts airports and military complexes. Interestingly, Microcar has found success in a specialized version of its LSV platform which incorporates a refrigerator and pizza oven for neighborhood pizza vehicles.
US Tax Incentives
With the drive towards reducing dependence on foreign oil, the US is providing incentives for alternative fuels and alternative energy solutions for many types of vehicles. Currently there is federal 10% tax credit available for the purchase of pure electric vehicles (up to $4,000). Other states and municipalities offer other incentives for owning and operating a zero emission vehicle.
EVs are being brought North America markets. The existence of these incentives could aid the success of the Magdyno’s market penetration in E-vehicle makers in USA/Canada, such as Zenn Motors (www.zenncars.com/) in Canada, Meyers Motors (www.myersmotors.com) and ZAP in USA (www.zapworld.com/) because all of their EVs are powered by conventional DC brushed motor technology.
Competition Analysis
Major Suppliers of EPS systems for LEV/EV applications are usually from different vendors. More than 70 motors and controller makers are in China. Also, National, Sanyo, Yamaha, Heinzmann, chachner, e-Cycle, MAC / BMC, Koll Morgan, TDCM, and Many others are suppliers of motors and controllers.
The following table shows the motor configurations for LEV/EV drive systems in Asian, American and European markets

China (brushed and brushless)
150 - 250 watt hub motors, gear reduction and direct drive, most common in China.
Low cost, not consistent in quality or performance, more than 70 makers, “good enough” for the China market and low price export market.
250 – 750 watt gear reduction hub brushed/brushless motors. Quite good, not cheap.
Japan (brushed)
250 watt bottom bracket drive used in Japan.
250 watt, designed for Japanese regulations – proportional drive PAS paradigm.
Some hub motors are used, including an American designed model for Sanyo
EU (brushed)
250 to 600 watt motors in a variety of configurations used in EU.
USA (brushed)
250 – 1,500 watt motors in a variety of configurations used in USA.
Magdyno (Brushless multi-winding motor and softgered controller EPS configuration)

Brushless Motors have the advantage

Hub Motors have the advantage
 Hub motors easily fit on existing frames and platforms.
 Hub motors use a space that is otherwise not used at all.
 This applies to almost all LEVs.
 There seems to be a nearly universal intuitive acceptance of hub motors by consumers.
Many designs of LEV/EV applications use conventional motor configurations. Heat dissipation and durability are major issues – also noise, cost and serviceability.
Poor LEV/EV performance is slowing consumer adoption due to following Customer Problems:
 Limited range between charges
 Expensive battery only lasts one year
 Limited warranty due to power train problems
 Slow acceleration from stop
 Slow acceleration from cruising speed
 Can't climb steep hills
 High torque output produces heat in the motor windings that must be removed to avoid motor damage
Important issues for LEV/EV consumers in rough order of importance are:
 Cost (Battery life is a major cost component)
 Range (how far on a single charge)
 Noise
 Torque (acceleration from stop and hill climbing)
 Reliability
 Weight
 Efficiency
Different customers are with different priorities
 Military and Police – silence, range, speed
 Industrial – range, reliability
 Some EU markets – reliability
Opportunities for future
Many designs use conventional motors, however, market needs better reliable, high performance and cost effective EPS suppliers
 Smaller size
 More efficient
 Cost effective
 Better torque characteristics
 More durable
 Better controller characteristics
 Better controller reliability
Magdyno’s awarded and patented multi-winding brushless motor and softgeared controller configuration technology is revolutionary innovation. Two motor in one" with patented virtual winding configuration design, makes any e-bike:
 go 50% further increases range of e-bikes (up to 50% further)
 increases battery life (lasts up to 50% longer before new battery needed)
 much better acceleration
 climbs steeper hills (up to 50% steeper)
 significantly removes the heating produced in the motor windings while high torque output to avoid motor/controller/battery damage
Emerging markets for LEV/EV size EPS
 Robots
 Industrial carts
 Personal mobility
 Trailers
 Recreational
 Others
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Contact
Jerry Jiang
CEO and Chief architect
Phone: (1) 905.997.8081
Jerryyjiang@gmail.com jerry.jiang@magdyno.com
Magdyno Electro-mechanical Engineering Consulting Corp.
1498 Stillriver Cres. Mississauga, Ontario L5M3V5, Canada]

[A Greener World and A Dream Most Possible™]

Contact
Jerry Jiang
CEO and Chief architect
Phone: (1) 905.997.8081
Jerryyjiang@gmail.com jerry.jiang@magdyno.com
Magdyno Electro-mechanical Engineering Consulting Corp.
1498 Stillriver Cres. Mississauga, Ontario L5M3V5, Canada]

[Jo P]

Europe is woefully short of resources to meet its energy needs – and horribly reliant on other countries to meet its energy needs. No wonder France and the UK are hoping to hook up and pursue the nuclear option – big time. Meanwhile Germany is seriously committed to pursuing the “alternative” route.

Europeans do, however, have one thing in their favor; the towns and cities were mostly built before the invention of the automobile. European cities are generally much more compact:- bus trips are usually short and it is easy to imagine relatively inexpensive tram systems being introduced where they do not already exist. If forced many people could walk or cycle across (my 98 year old British grandmother tells me that she always walked or cycled if a trip was less than about 5 miles). There is also usually a good railway system and sometimes even a canal system in place. It means a change in lifestyle for many Europeans - but it is not wholly unrealistic to imagine life could continue there in a relatively civilized (but low energy) way indefinitely into the future. Or am I being unrealistic?